5407 State Highway 155 S · Gilmer, TX 75645

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1960 1.12 ac lot $122/sqft · 23% below area Est $202k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

Key facts

• 1.12 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,619
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -23.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $94,601
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $270,573
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,158/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $204	+0% $161	+5% $117	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $100	+0% $161	+5% $221	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $200	base $161	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $154,900 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,900 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $154,900 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,900 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,900 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 262 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,900 Active 261 DOM
19. 2026-02-06
    price $154,900 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

20. 2026-02-06
    price $154,900 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

21. 2026-01-13
    price $167,500 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

22. 2026-01-13
    price $167,500 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

23. 2025-12-10
    price $174,900 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

24. 2025-12-10
    price $174,900 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

25. 2025-11-10
    price $189,900 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

26. 2025-11-10
    price $189,900 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

27. 2025-10-07
    price $197,500 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

28. 2025-10-07
    listed $197,500 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

29. 2025-09-10
    listed $204,900 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Full rehab complete! Great 3 bedroom 1 bath home with 1 car garage and a nice large lot! This property is now active in an online auction. The first event begins March 3-8-26.

30. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus Closed
31. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus
32. 2022-04-20
    status Pending
33. 2022-01-11
    soldstatus
34. 2022-01-10
    listed $120,000 Active
35. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus
36. 2021-12-09
    listed $115,000
37. 2019-11-07
    soldstatus
38. 2019-11-04
    soldstatus
39. 2019-10-30
    soldstatus
40. 2019-10-04
    listed $84,900
41. 2019-03-28
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,158 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$677/yr (+$56/mo · 31.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,158
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $2,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $154,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $154,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $167,500 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $167,500 LAAR
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $174,900 LAAR
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $189,900 LAAR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $197,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $197,500 LAAR
• 2025-09-10 Listed $204,900 NTREIS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-10 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-12-09 Listed $115,000 GTAR
• 2019-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-04 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2019-10-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2019-10-04 Listed $84,900 GTAR
• 2019-03-28 Listed $84,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,158 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.