Equinox Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$349,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Entering the home from the covered porch, you step into a bright foyer that leads to two bedrooms sharing a full bath. Continuing down the hallway, you'll find a third bedroom and a laundry room with convenient access to the two-car garage. The layout opens up into a connected kitchen, family room, and dining area, creating a welcoming central living space. A covered patio extends off the family room, perfect for outdoor relaxation. Just beyond the kitchen and dining area, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Bright foyer
• Laundry room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• BRIGHT FOYER
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• CONNECTED KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; List price available (not included here)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Central air; Heat pump
• Home design: Single-family plan (Equinox)
• Exterior features: Address: 13112 Bending Creek Trl, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Equinox (new construction plan); Living area 1,914

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,746.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $305,183 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,746
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10833 Paddling Trace Run	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,914 (0%)	1mo	$346,990	$181	87
11104 Curving Creek Loop	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	0mo	$380,990	$189	84
13131 Bending Creek Trl	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	0mo	$380,990	$189	84
13128 Bending Creek Trl	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	2mo	$376,500	$186	83
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-3%)	1mo	$361,990	$196	82
12816 Blue Reflection Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-3%)	2mo	$378,190	$204	80
10469 Curving Creek Loop	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-5%)	2mo	$337,990	$185	74
10972 Gentle Current Way	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	2mo	$344,890	$189	70
10837 Paddling Trace Run	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,761 (-8%)	1mo	$339,990	$193	68
10908 Curving Creek Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (-12%)	1mo	$329,990	$197	59
13257 Bending Creek Trl	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,164 (+13%)	1mo	$374,990	$173	58
10935 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	2mo	$377,000	$206	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-73,184
• Equity at exit: $53,938

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-105,404
• Equity at exit: $31,277

Cash invested: $101,289 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,897
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,426/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,164

Max offer price $348,868

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $36	+0% $-89	+5% $-214	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-210	+0% $-89	+5% $32	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $3	base $-89	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,436
• Closing costs: $10,852
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	15d	1	0.18mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	4d	1	0.25mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	24d	1	0.55mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	17d	1	0.56mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	24d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,990 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,990 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,263
• − Property taxes: −$5,426
• − Insurance: −$1,809
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,930
• − Management: −$2,930
• − Depreciation: −$10,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B