1452 Cave Spring Rd · Owens Cross Roads, AL 35763

$179,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1973 0.50 ac lot $113/sqft · 33% below area Est $268k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$4000 UPGRADE ALLOWANCE!!!!!!!!! FOUR BEDROOM RANCHER --MINUTES AWAY FROM HAMPTON COVE AND JUST A SHORT DRIVE TO SCHOOLS. CORNER LOT WITH CIRCLE DRIVE. HOME IS LOCATED JUST A FEW MINUTES FROM US HWY 431--EASY DRIVE TO LAKE GUNTERSVILLE----FOR RECREATION -----------UPDATED APPLIANCES. RECENTLY ADDED NEW FLOORING AND FRESH PAINT

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Fresh paint
• Circle drive

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• MINUTES FROM US HWY 431
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.5% in Owens Cross Roads — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#65 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 366 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $154k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.78%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,154
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -33.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1189 Cave Spring Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,690 (+6%)	4mo	$185,000	$109	50
718 Old Gurley Pike	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,799 (+13%)	11mo	$425,000	$236	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,049
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $53,418
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35763

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $806/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $635	-5% $585	+0% $534	+5% $483	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $372	-5% $453	+0% $534	+5% $615	+10% $695
Rate	-1.0pp $624	-0.5pp $579	base $534	+0.5pp $488	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
837 Low Gap Rd Gurley, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	44d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 362-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $179,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,500 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $188,500 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $188,500 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,500 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,500 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,500 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,500 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,500 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,500 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $188,500 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-02-09
    listed $188,500 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    $4000 UPGRADE ALLOWANCE!!!!!!!!! FOUR BEDROOM RANCHER --MINUTES AWAY FROM HAMPTON COVE AND JUST A SHORT DRIVE TO SCHOOLS. CORNER LOT WITH CIRCLE DRIVE. HOME IS LOCATED JUST A FEW MINUTES FROM US HWY 431--EASY DRIVE TO LAKE GUNTERSVILLE----FOR RECREATION -----------UPDATED APPLIANCES. RECENTLY ADDED NEW FLOORING AND FRESH PAINT

16. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus $154,000
17. 2022-01-24
    price $85,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

18. 2022-01-24
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

19. 2022-01-11
    status Pending 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

20. 2022-01-11
    price $89,900 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

21. 2021-12-09
    historical Contingent 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

22. 2021-12-01
    price $89,900 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

23. 2021-11-16
    status Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

24. 2021-11-04
    historical Contingent 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

25. 2021-10-28
    price $95,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

26. 2021-10-15
    price $115,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

27. 2021-10-15
    price $105,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

28. 2021-09-30
    listed $120,000 Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment home. Property is just over 1/2 an acre on a corner lot and is being sold "as is". 10 minutes to Hampton Cove and 30 minutes to Lake Guntersville.

29. 2021-09-08
    status Pending
30. 2021-08-30
    price $119,500
31. 2021-07-31
    listed $123,500 Active
32. 2007-10-04
    soldstatus $67,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$806
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $3,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$879
• After-tax cash flow: $5,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Owens Cross Roads

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #9303

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• City population: 19,819
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,819
• Household income: $123,497
• Rent vs Own: 7.5% rent · 92.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.43%
• Current HPI: 281.0561
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+180.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $188,500 VMLS
• 2023-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-24 Price Changed $85,000 VMLS
• 2022-01-24 Sold (MLS) $85,000 VMLS
• 2022-01-11 Pending — VMLS
• 2022-01-11 Price Changed $89,900 VMLS
• 2021-12-09 Contingent — VMLS
• 2021-12-01 Price Changed $89,900 VMLS
• 2021-11-16 Relisted — VMLS
• 2021-11-04 Contingent — VMLS
• 2021-10-28 Price Changed $95,000 VMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $115,000 VMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $105,000 VMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listed $120,000 VMLS
• 2021-09-08 Pending — VMLS
• 2021-08-30 Price Changed $119,500 VMLS
• 2021-07-31 Listed $123,500 VMLS
• 2007-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $67,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $806 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.