4240 E 12th Pl · Gary, IN 46403

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1957 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House sold As Is. 3 bedroom 1 bath. The figure listed in the Annual Tax Amount field is the most recent annual tax amount available from the Lake County Assessor's office. A decision on the final property tax amounts for all Lake County properties is pending in the courts. Please contact the Lake County Assessor's Office if you have any questionsh.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.48%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,128
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1119 Cass St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,066 (+3%)	4mo	$80,000	$75	73
4409 E 11th Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	944 (-8%)	6mo	$125,000	$132	69
1118 Dearborn Cir	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-2%)	9mo	$122,000	$121	66
1121 Dekalb St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (+3%)	3mo	$127,500	$120	64
1151 Benton St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	936 (-9%)	3mo	$150,000	$160	63
3932 E 14th Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-7%)	10mo	$100,000	$104	60
1310 Dearborn St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (+12%)	5mo	$82,000	$71	55
3937 E 13th Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (-14%)	8mo	$119,900	$136	54
1017 Utah St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-12%)	7mo	$60,000	$66	52
5330 E 11th Pl	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	927 (-10%)	11mo	$120,000	$129	43
5425 E 13th Pl	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-9%)	8mo	$122,500	$131	42
1134 Dekalb St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (-14%)	8mo	$148,000	$167	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $37,599
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.55×
• Total profit: $91,643
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46403

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $436

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $746	-5% $731	+0% $717	+5% $703	+10% $689
Rent	-10% $611	-5% $664	+0% $717	+5% $770	+10% $823
Rate	-1.0pp $742	-0.5pp $730	base $717	+0.5pp $704	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1118 Benton St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	936	$1,245	$1.33	0d	1	0.23mi
1252-54 Idaho St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	0d	1	0.48mi
904 Idaho St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,200	$1.02	45d	1	0.54mi
1041 DeKalb St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,250	$1.24	45d	1	0.54mi
2908 Central Dr Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	884	$1,525	$1.73	0d	1	1.19mi
430 S Grand Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	830	$865	$1.04	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $50,000 Active
3. 2004-06-15
   listed $23,900 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   House sold As Is. 3 bedroom 1 bath. The figure listed in the Annual Tax Amount field is the most recent annual tax amount available from the Lake County Assessor's office. A decision on the final property tax amounts for all Lake County properties is pending in the courts. Please contact the Lake County Assessor's Office if you have any questionsh.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $6,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,929
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.41%
• Current HPI: 294.0935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+109.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $50,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-15 Listed $23,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-11.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $740 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.