2575 S Willow Ave #15 · Fresno, CA 93725

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $92k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location. Clean and pleasant mobile home. Close proximity to schools, transportation, employment, and access to freeway. Community pool, sauna, & gym. Huge clubhouse for parties or other alcohol free events, as well as a nice park area with play structure.The possibilities are endless for the keen eye. Priced for you to put your stamp on it. Tons of potential!Bed and bath count are different than tax records, buyer to verify if important.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Park amenities
• Pool

Tags

• PARK AMENITIES
• POOL
• LIBRARY
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee due monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Has carport
• Utilities: Electric service on; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Mobile home; Park space rented
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood subfloor foundation; Composition roof; 90003 CHAMPION HOME BUILDERS SC899C (manufacturer)
• Exterior features: One level; Covered patio/porch; Shed(s); Urban lot setting; Private community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: F/S Range/Oven; Gas appliances
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Isolated bedroom; Tub and shower; separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Juan Felipe Herrera Elementary (559 students, 89% FRL); Elizabeth Terronez Middle (638 students, 89% FRL); Sunnyside High (math 13% / reading 47%, grade F, #715 of 1,170 statewide, top 62%, 2,879 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $99k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.98%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,872
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2575 S Willow Ave #237	0.11mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$125,000	$118	78
2575 S Willow Ave #240	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	22mo	$91,500	$87	77
2575 S Willow Ave #240	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	22mo	$91,500	$87	77
2572 S Willow Ave #237	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$125,000	$118	74
2575 S Willow Ave #156	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+8%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	63
2575 S Willow Ave #165	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	12mo	$42,000	$35	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,306
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $49,256
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93725

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $251/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $489	+0% $461	+5% $433	+10% $405
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $409	+0% $461	+5% $514	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $487	base $461	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4760 E Butler Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,320	$1.35	2d	9	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 320-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $99,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $251 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$501/yr (+$42/mo · 199.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$251
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $4,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 25,520

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% White 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 62%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 48% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.96%
• Current HPI: 423.3321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+314.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $99,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed $110,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2020-04-13 Price Changed $22,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2020-03-20 Sold (MLS) $22,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2020-02-05 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2020-02-05 Price Changed $23,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-12-20 Listed $23,900 FRESNOMLS