224 State Route 80 West · Arlington, KY 42021

$24,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1962 2.00 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A home (handy man special) and two acres in the Carlisle County with over 1700 sq ft seldom comes on the market and here is your chance. Priced accordingly and a very nice site to build another home or to refurbish this one.

Key facts

• Two acres
• 2 acre lot
• Built 1962

Tags

• TWO ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Approximately 2 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#470 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($166 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 144.00%
• DSCR: 7.41
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,925
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 2nd St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,730 (+1%)	4mo	$129,000	$75	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $48,799
• Equity at exit: $13,383

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.41×
• Total profit: $110,274
• Equity at exit: $22,921

Cash invested: $6,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42021

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$126
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $157/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $347

Max offer price $24,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,000
• Closing costs: $720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $24,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $24,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $25,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $27,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $27,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    price $29,000
18. 2026-05-08
    price $30,000
19. 2026-04-23
    listed $32,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $157 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $206 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,344
• − Property taxes: −$157
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$698
• Taxable income: $8,368
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,008
• After-tax cash flow: $6,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle County
• NCES district ID: 2100960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,978
• Composite: 30.43/100
• National rank: #6236
• State rank: #59 of 165 in KY

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #23430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Carlisle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,341 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,003 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 3,736 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 3,405 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 3,264 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carlisle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.3 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Current HPI: 200.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $29,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $30,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $32,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $157 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.