1862 Farm Way · Fleming Island, FL 32068

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1988 9,020 sqft lot Est $260k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the established Orange Park South neighborhood of Middleburg. Featuring a spacious layout with a combined living and dining area, wood-burning fireplace, and 2-car garage, this home offers a great foundation for comfortable living. Set on a generous lot with no HOA, there's plenty of room to make it your own. The home could use some TLC, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near everyday amenities and zoned for well-rated Clay County schools, this property is ideal for families or investors alike.

Key facts

• 9,020 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; East-facing; Resale condition
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; 1,311 living area (public records); Built as a single-story structure
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Wood-burning fireplace; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Fleming Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#74 in FL, #1,239 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,890 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,578
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2237 Alderney Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+2%)	1mo	$147,000	$110	92
2070 Tickford St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+5%)	3mo	$282,000	$206	86
2410 Cashmere Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	0mo	$230,000	$177	74
2372 Tigress Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+4%)	1mo	$270,000	$198	74
2482 Aloha Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+1%)	6mo	$284,000	$214	72
2185 Khaki Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-5%)	1mo	$274,000	$220	70
2500 Ambrosia Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-1%)	7mo	$255,000	$197	70
2268 Felucca Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+9%)	1mo	$275,000	$192	68
2246 Botany St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$235	64
1709 Ashwood Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,359 (+4%)	6mo	$280,000	$206	60
1994 Apopka Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+11%)	1mo	$275,000	$189	46
2432 Ambrosia Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+15%)	5mo	$280,000	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-16,616
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $10,851
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,680

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1715 Farm Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,899	$1.57	7d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $215,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   price $210,000 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the established Orange Park South neighborhood of Middleburg. Featuring a spacious layout with a combined living and dining area, wood-burning fireplace, and 2-car garage, this home offers a great foundation for comfortable living. Set on a generous lot with no HOA, there's plenty of room to make it your own. The home could use some TLC, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near everyday amenities and zoned for well-rated Clay County schools, this property is ideal for families or investors alike.

5. 2026-05-08
   listed $215,000 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the established Orange Park South neighborhood of Middleburg. Featuring a spacious layout with a combined living and dining area, wood-burning fireplace, and 2-car garage, this home offers a great foundation for comfortable living. Set on a generous lot with no HOA, there's plenty of room to make it your own. The home could use some TLC, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near everyday amenities and zoned for well-rated Clay County schools, this property is ideal for families or investors alike.

6. 2026-04-30
   listed $215,000 Active
7. 2005-09-13
   soldstatus $153,900
8. 2005-08-30
   historical 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Very nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in popular Orange Park South features vaulted ceiling in great room, tiled floors in common areas, carpet in bedrooms, large closets and fireplace. The screened patio overlooks a well maintained fenced yard with irrigation system. Wide lot provides great space.

9. 2005-08-29
   soldstatus $153,900 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Very nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in popular Orange Park South features vaulted ceiling in great room, tiled floors in common areas, carpet in bedrooms, large closets and fireplace. The screened patio overlooks a well maintained fenced yard with irrigation system. Wide lot provides great space.

10. 2005-07-27
    listed $149,900 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Very nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in popular Orange Park South features vaulted ceiling in great room, tiled floors in common areas, carpet in bedrooms, large closets and fireplace. The screened patio overlooks a well maintained fenced yard with irrigation system. Wide lot provides great space.

11. 1998-07-24
    soldstatus $87,500
12. 1993-04-16
    soldstatus $72,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $3,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fleming Island

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #1239

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 29,766
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $210,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $215,000 Beaches MLS
• 2005-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $153,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-08-29 Sold (MLS) $153,900 realMLS
• 2005-07-27 Listed $149,900 realMLS
• 1998-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 1993-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,318 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.