15310 Waterow Vw · San Antonio, TX 78073

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2022 4,356 sqft lot $178/sqft · 12% below area Est $272k · 14% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the charming Bay plan at Preserve at Medina. This remarkable home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a chef-ready kitchen, spacious master suite and an incredible open layout allowing you to easily flow from room to room. Upgrades featured throughout the Bay plan include a full suite of energy-efficient kitchen appliances, granite countertops, luxury vinyl plank flooring and more. Homeowners at Preserve at Medina enjoy living within a premier, family-friendly community near San Antonio.

Key facts

• Chef-ready kitchen
• Granite countertops
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Preserve at Medina; Possession at closing/funding; For sale
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $432 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity supplied by CPS Energy; Water supplied by SAWS; Sewer supplied by SAWS; Connected to water and sewer systems
• Home design: New construction by LGI Homes; Brick, stone/rock and siding exterior
• Construction: Approximate age: 4 years; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Park / playground in community; BBQ / grill area in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Island
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (11 x 17); Bedroom 2 (12 x 10); Bedroom 3 (11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity (14 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Island kitchen; Utility room inside; Ground level / no steps; Open floor plan; Cable TV available; High speed internet; Some window coverings remain; Washer connection; Dryer connection; Disposal; Vent fan; Smoke alarm
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; 6 x 6 utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,890 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.85%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,735
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -13.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15238 Walcott Rdg	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,301 (-1%)	0mo	$194,450	$149	89
15531 Clove Spice	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+3%)	1mo	$196,080	$144	82
15434 Lemon Pepper Crk	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+9%)	5mo	$253,000	$176	68
4243 Marjoram Lndg	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+9%)	2mo	$238,610	$166	67
4231 Paprika Grv	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+11%)	1mo	$241,170	$164	61
4247 Paprika Grv	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+11%)	1mo	$245,670	$167	59
4246 Paprika Grv	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	2mo	$233,109	$202	58
15435 Mint Patch Mdw	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+11%)	3mo	$240,670	$164	54
15503 Mint Patch Mdw	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	4mo	$214,610	$186	54
15514 Mint Patch Mdw	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	6mo	$233,109	$202	54
4307 Common Sage	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+11%)	1mo	$245,310	$167	52
15523 Mint Patch Mdw	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+11%)	6mo	$254,499	$173	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,885
• Equity at exit: $100,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $31,029
• Equity at exit: $150,751

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,389/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $158,890

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-364	+0% $-430	+5% $-497	+10% $-563
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-500	+0% $-430	+5% $-361	+10% $-292
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-371	base $-430	+0.5pp $-491	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$1,855	$1.04	0d	1	0.06mi
15319 Escalante Pass Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,000	$1.40	0d	1	0.13mi
15226 Walcott Rdg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1297	$1,700	$1.31	25d	1	0.17mi
15266 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,647	$1.08	3d	1	0.18mi
4042 Bay Leaf Loop Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.18mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	0.21mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	6d	1	0.22mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	22d	1	0.22mi
15706 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,650	$1.07	0d	1	0.24mi
15027 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,850	$1.21	25d	1	0.24mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.25mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	19d	1	0.25mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	6d	1	0.25mi
15619 Garam Trl Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1856	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.26mi
3819 Leighton Hbr Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1430	$1,700	$1.19	25d	1	0.28mi
4231 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	3.0	1470	$1,723	$1.17	0d	1	0.35mi
4218 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.35mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,129	$1.35	0d	6	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $234,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $234,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $234,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    listed $234,900 New 502-char remark
12. 2024-02-16
    historical $1,775
13. 2024-01-31
    listed $1,775
14. 2024-01-21
    historical $1,775
15. 2024-01-09
    price $1,775
16. 2023-12-29
    listed
17. 2023-12-14
    historical
18. 2023-11-22
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,389 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,389 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$5,389
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$9,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,237
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13133.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-05-15 Listed $234,900 LERA
• 2024-02-16 Rental Removed $1,775 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,775 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-21 Rental Removed $1,775 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $1,775 BUILDIUM
• 2023-12-29 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM
• 2023-12-14 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2023-11-22 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM

Property tax history

+70.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,389 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.