3214 Candlewood Ln · Conroe, TX 77356

$285,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1986 7,069 sqft lot $105/sqft · 25% below area Est $378k · 25% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your retreat near Lake Conroe! This inviting home offers the charm of indoor comfort and the beauty of outdoor living. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace or entertain guests at the built-in bar in the living area. An upstairs balcony offers serene views of the lush greenbelt behind the home, giving a sense of added space and privacy. The layout features thoughtful storage throughout, blending function and comfort. Located in a vibrant community, you’ll have access to top-tier amenities including a yacht club, racquet club, golf course, and local market. Just minutes from waterfront dining, boutique shopping, and the recreational fun of Lake Conroe. With conve

Key facts

• Built in bar
• Upstairs balcony
• Waterfront dining

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN BAR
• UPSTAIRS BALCONY
• LUSH GREENBELT
• THOUGHTFUL STORAGE
• WATERFRONT DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Walden HOA (annual fee $1,150)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1986; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1); Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Primary bathroom; Pantry; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (First level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-312/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $285k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,781 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,231
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -20.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12311 Longfellow Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,627 (-3%)	3mo	$539,000	$205	81
3318 Fitzgerald Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,866 (+6%)	4mo	$657,000	$229	75
3230 Candlewood Ln	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,426 (-10%)	4mo	$509,000	$210	75
3410 Wood Rock Ln	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,929 (+8%)	1mo	$457,888	$156	63
12431 Lakeview Dr	0.51mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,737 (+1%)	4mo	$645,000	$236	61
11523 Ripplewind Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,815 (+4%)	1mo	$474,900	$169	60
3030 Hemingway Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,354 (-13%)	3mo	$325,000	$138	59
12018 Brightwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,344 (-13%)	2mo	$445,000	$190	57
11818 Thoreau Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,899 (+7%)	1mo	$465,000	$160	55
11151 Hunters Lndg	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,524 (-7%)	1mo	$599,999	$238	55
3418 Brookhaven Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,430 (-10%)	3mo	$369,900	$152	48
3603 Hickory Hill Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,329 (-14%)	4mo	$388,000	$167	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,610
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,567
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,470/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,741

Max offer price $280,413

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $55	+0% $-26	+5% $-107	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-133	+0% $-26	+5% $81	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $47	base $-26	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	1.25mi
35 Lakeview Vlg Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$3,000	$1.43	19d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $285,000 Pending 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    historical
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $300,000 Active 979-char remark
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $300,000 Active
18. 2026-02-16
    historical
19. 2025-11-04
    listed $325,000 Active
20. 2025-11-04
    historical
21. 2025-10-06
    listed $350,000 Active
22. 2025-10-06
    historical
23. 2025-09-17
    listed $375,000 Active
24. 1996-04-30
    soldstatus $141,512
25. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,470 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,470 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,470
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 1996-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $141,512 Public Records
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,470 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.