430 Shaw St · Rockford, IL 61104

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great Investment opportunity! 2 family on a large lot. 2 bedroom 1 bath in each unit. Lower level also has formal dining room. Access to 1 car garage & basement are included wth rent to lower unit. Separate utilities, water & sewer included with rent.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1920
• Listed 156 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $273/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maud E Johnson Elem School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 391 students, 0% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Middle School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #636 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 699 students, 0% FRL); Rockford East High School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 1,718 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,177/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $160k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Pearl St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	—	2mo	$158,000	—	75
408 S Gardiner Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0	—	6mo	$128,200	—	67
124 S Prospect St	0.46mi	4/2.0	—	3mo	$130,000	—	64
328 S Prospect St	0.42mi	4/3.0	—	3mo	$172,000	—	61
1619 4th Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0	—	6mo	$80,000	—	60
1308 19th St	0.60mi	4/2.0	—	1mo	$185,000	—	58
2617 9th Ave	0.52mi	5/2.0 (+1)	—	7mo	$235,000	—	53
125 S Prospect St	0.49mi	4/4.0	—	5mo	$215,000	—	52
907 21st St	0.38mi	5/4.0 (+1)	—	6mo	$190,000	—	52
2002 13th Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	—	7mo	$200,000	—	51
1443 8th Ave	0.72mi	4/4.0	1,388	3mo	$219,900	$158	44
2225 Broadway	0.74mi	4/4.0	—	5mo	$284,900	—	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $20,432
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $115,244
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61104

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,216/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $591	+0% $546	+5% $501	+10% $456
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $460	+0% $546	+5% $632	+10% $718
Rate	-1.0pp $627	-0.5pp $587	base $546	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $462

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,178
Total (2 units)			$2,177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 S Gardiner Ave Unit AVE2 Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1306	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.36mi
1004 15th St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1267	$1,450	$1.14	22d	1	0.49mi
1202 18th St Unit 3 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	15d	1	0.54mi
620 Paris Ave Rockford, IL	5.0	3.5	—	$2,200	—	22d	1	0.73mi
1351 7th Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	45d	1	0.80mi
708 29th St Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,600	$0.89	22d	1	0.80mi
1209 6th Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	—	$1,500	—	22d	1	0.96mi
1231 11th Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1284	$1,450	$1.13	45d	1	1.05mi
1119 9th Ave Unit 1W Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,600	$1.39	45d	1	1.10mi
1612 10th St Unit 2 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	—	$1,250	—	45d	1	1.15mi
1519 17th Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	15d	1	1.18mi
713 S 4th St Unit Upper Rockford, IL	4.0	2.0	—	$1,500	—	45d	1	1.32mi
512 Market St Unit 512 UPPER Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	—	$1,750	—	45d	1	1.39mi
222 S 2nd St Unit 224 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	—	$1,350	—	22d	1	1.48mi
507 Oak St Unit 2 Rockford, IL	3.0	2.5	—	$1,250	—	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-20
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2005-06-14
   soldstatus $82,500
4. 1997-12-05
   soldstatus $60,000
5. 1997-12-05
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,216 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,424 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,216
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $5,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,222
• Household income: $33,772
• Rent vs Own: 62.2% rent · 37.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 233.0219
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.67%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $160,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 1997-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,216 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.