1014 Warner Rd · Saluda, VA 23175

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1974 1.08 ac lot $148/sqft · 28% below area Est $362k · 28% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom ranch style home. This home boast a peaceful 1 acre lot with a rear deck and fenced backyard. There's a 1.5 detached garage and additional outdoor buildings including a carport for boat storage. New 2026 roof. New 2026 refrigerator. Washer and dryer convey. Working woodstove conveys.

Key facts

• Outdoor buildings
• Rear deck
• Peaceful 1 acre lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL 1 ACRE LOT
• REAR DECK
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OUTDOOR BUILDINGS
• CARPORT FOR BOAT STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,835 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.93%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,434
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -28.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $43,377
• Equity at exit: $126,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $138,867
• Equity at exit: $201,609

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23175

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $259,900 Active 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Charming, well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom ranch style home. This home boast a peaceful 1 acre lot with a rear deck and fenced backyard. There's a 1.5 detached garage and additional outdoor buildings including a carport for boat storage. New 2026 roof. New 2026 refrigerator. Washer and dryer convey. Working woodstove conveys.

2. 2025-10-10
   soldstatus $230,000 Closed 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

3. 2025-09-13
   status Pending 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

4. 2025-07-21
   price $239,500 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

5. 2025-05-30
   status Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

6. 2025-05-07
   status Pending 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

7. 2025-04-02
   listed $279,900 Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

8. 2025-03-24
   historical $279,900 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home minutes from the Town of Urbanna, well maintained, detached garage, storage shed, carport for boat storage, fenced back yard, one acre fronting state road. main part of the house is a manufactured home. * * * Financing maybe an option, see agent remarks * * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,331/yr (+$111/mo · 166.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$930
• After-tax cash flow: $1,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Saluda

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #26208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,750

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 19% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.62%
• Current HPI: 287.8475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $259,900 CBRAR
• 2025-10-10 Sold (MLS) $230,000 CBRAR
• 2025-09-13 Pending — CBRAR
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $239,500 CBRAR
• 2025-05-30 Relisted — CBRAR
• 2025-05-07 Pending — CBRAR
• 2025-04-02 Listed $279,900 CBRAR
• 2025-03-24 Coming Soon $279,900 CBRAR

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.