34777 Clayton Center Rd · Depauville, NY 13624

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1982 3.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

If you need room for all your toys, cars, ATVs, snowmobiles, and dream of space to spread out, this nearly 4-acre property delivers. Tucked just 5 miles from the St. Lawrence River in the charming village of Clayton and 9 miles from Lake Ontario in Chaumont. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home has been completely renovated inside and out, with thoughtful additions and a layout that flows beautifully, each bedroom has its own easy exit, ideal for rental potential. The opportunities here are endless. A massive 4-bay garage stores your gear or generates rental income, with potential living space above ready to become an in-law suite or rental unit. Enjoy the gazebo with electric and hot/cold water,

Key facts

• Completely renovated
• Massive 4 bay garage
• 3.82 acre lot

Tags

• NEARLY 4 ACRE PROPERTY
• 5 MILES FROM ST LAWRENCE RIVER
• 9 MILES FROM LAKE ONTARIO
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• MASSIVE 4 BAY GARAGE
• POTENTIAL LIVING SPACE ABOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Four garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Single wide body type (mobile home)
• Construction: Cedar construction; Slab foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Hot tub / spa; Barn(s); Gazebo; Outbuilding; Poultry coop; Shed(s); Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Kitchen and family room combo; Bedroom on main level; Workshop; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (34.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (49.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,147 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Guardino Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 293 students, 44% FRL); Thousand Islands Middle School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C+, #233 of 729 statewide, top 32%, 209 students, 50% FRL); Thousand Islands High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 247 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,480 (49.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.48%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $75,309
• Equity at exit: $171,320

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $239,459
• Equity at exit: $360,425

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13624

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,516

Max offer price $130,122

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-282	-5% $-339	+0% $-396	+5% $-452	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-476	-5% $-436	+0% $-396	+5% $-355	+10% $-315
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-345	base $-396	+0.5pp $-447	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $200,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,081 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,299/yr (+$108/mo · 166.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$8,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thousand Islands Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607650
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,233
• Composite: 49.94/100
• National rank: #1930
• State rank: #262 of 590 in NY

Livability — Depauville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1147
• US rank: #23925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 128
• Population (ZIP): 4,438

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Current HPI: 418.5008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $225,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $781 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.