Waterford - Build on Your Lot Plan · Lebanon, OH 45036

$275,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,031 sqft · SingleFamily · 731 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2 Story Home with Open Floorplan, Flex Room/Study, and 4 Bedrooms

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• 2 story home
• Flex room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FLEX ROOM
• 2 STORY HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $275,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $358,084.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#457 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lebanon City (suburban): math 67% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #151 of 656 in OH (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 289 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 731 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 731 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,084
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -23.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1136 Reveres Run	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,920 (-6%)	1mo	$353,000	$184	85
1130 Silversmith Way	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,937 (-5%)	7mo	$382,000	$197	73
291 Portland Blvd	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,936 (-5%)	4mo	$330,000	$170	68
1200 Bugle Bluff Ct	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (-10%)	3mo	$300,000	$165	66
1597 Haworth Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,092 (+3%)	14mo	$400,000	$191	66
1644 Cantebury Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-11%)	8mo	$363,000	$202	62
1563 Barrington Ct	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,104 (+4%)	10mo	$425,000	$202	62
266 Birmingham Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,748 (-14%)	14mo	$321,000	$184	56
1637 Hastings Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-12%)	9mo	$310,000	$174	55
1536 Barrington Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,782 (-12%)	4mo	$359,000	$201	50
516 Clarion Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,812 (-11%)	9mo	$330,000	$182	48
508 Heritage Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-14%)	14mo	$345,000	$199	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-72,977
• Equity at exit: $53,391

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-38,449
• Equity at exit: $30,961

Cash invested: $100,263 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45036

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,878
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$448 /mo · $5,371/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $293,227

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,521
• Closing costs: $10,743
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 Bugle Bluff Ct Lebanon, OH	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,500	$1.37	1d	1	0.19mi
1088 Heritage Trce Lebanon, OH	5.0	4.5	2312	$2,436	$1.05	19d	1	0.28mi
1616 Hastings Ct Lebanon, OH	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,966	$1.12	1d	1	0.33mi
935 Grandstone Ct Lebanon, OH	4.0	2.5	2150	$2,516	$1.17	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 731 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 730 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 729 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 728 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 726 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 725 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 722 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 721 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 720 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 716 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 715 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 714 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 713 DOM
14. 2024-06-18
    listed $275,000 Active 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Spacious 2 Story Home with Open Floorplan, Flex Room/Study, and 4 Bedrooms

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,058
• − Property taxes: −$5,371
• − Insurance: −$1,790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − Depreciation: −$10,417
• Taxable loss: −$11,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,827
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story home features a good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good potential for value increase with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lebanon City
• NCES district ID: 3904421
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,118
• Composite: 59.25/100
• National rank: #936
• State rank: #151 of 656 in OH

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #7561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebanon, OH
• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• City population: 42,204
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 42,204
• Household income: $99,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 904.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.95%
• Current HPI: 239.4833
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.33%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-06-18 Listed $275,000 Zillow