604 SW Phillips Cir · Lake City, FL 32024

$299,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2006 0.50 ac lot Est $308k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well maintained 3-bed, 2-bath split plan home in the desirable Turkey Run subdivision, offering a blend of comfort, efficiency, and outdoor enjoyment. Turkey Run is a one entrance/exit development of 1/2 acre lots that is convenient to US 90 and I-75 but maintains that country feel. Installed in 2022 along with a new roof, the owner-owned full solar panel system provides long-term savings and peace of mind. Imagine months of electric bills with a credit balance due. Inside, you’ll find a large living space perfect for gatherings, along with a cozy breakfast niche overlooking the spacious backyard. Step outside to a screened-in back porch ideal for year-round relaxation

Key facts

• Well for irrigation
• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULL SOLAR PANEL SYSTEM
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO STORAGE OR WORK SHEDS
• WELL FOR IRRIGATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Frame construction; Slab foundation; Zoned RSF-2
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot (approx. 0.5 acre); Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Covered, screened patio/porch; Chain link fence; Shed(s) on the property
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 696 students, 50% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $300k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,854 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,911
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
287 SW Phillips Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+3%)	17mo	$305,000	$190	76
1256 SW County Road 252b	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	4mo	$265,000	$189	74
180 SW Ethel Gln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	6mo	$342,000	$197	72
116 SW Lucile Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+2%)	11mo	$325,000	$204	60
138 SW Pilots Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-5%)	3mo	$283,000	$191	55
127 SW Sunset Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-7%)	2mo	$287,500	$197	54
281 SW Silver Palm Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (+10%)	3mo	$362,000	$212	53
151 SW Silver Palm Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+13%)	4mo	$354,150	$201	52
311 SW Silver Palm Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+5%)	12mo	$368,000	$225	52
554 SW Mayfair Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+14%)	6mo	$270,000	$151	49
359 SW Silver Palm Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+13%)	12mo	$382,400	$217	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $141,224
• Equity at exit: $270,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $432,960
• Equity at exit: $582,832

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,487/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $238,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-261	+0% $-346	+5% $-431	+10% $-516
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-420	+0% $-346	+5% $-272	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-270	base $-346	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,999 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $299,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 22 DOM
20. 2026-05-08
    listed $315,000 Active
21. 2005-01-03
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,487
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,324
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+556.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $315,000 NFMLS
• 2005-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,487 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.