🏷️ Likely Rental
1104 Charnwood St · Houston, TX
Flood risk 2/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.03%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 24 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +9.4/30.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +3.6/5.0
- 1% rule +3.1/10.0
- Schools +2.7/10.0
- DSCR +2.6/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$165,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
CASH FLOWING PROPERTY , TENANT OCCUPIED LOCATION THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. KEEP AS A LONG TERM HOLD, OR BUILD YOUR DREAM HOME LATER. AREA IS BOOMING, WITH MAJOR FREEWAYS CLOSE, SHOPPING, AND RESTAURANTS.
Key facts
- Shopping
- Major freeways close
- Restaurants
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (12.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (19.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $134k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
- Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $27k; list at $165k implies a 505% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.81% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.43%
- Cash-on-cash
- -3.08%
- DSCR
- 0.86
- GRM
- 10.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $254,629
- List price
- $165,000
- Delta
- -35.20%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7714 Helmers St | 0.43mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,104 (-4%) | 2mo | $249,900 | $226 | 66 |
| 604 Yorkshire St | 0.68mi | 2/1.0 | 1,170 (+2%) | 2mo | $175,000 | $150 | 64 |
| 620 Apache St | 0.33mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,036 (-10%) | 2mo | $195,000 | $188 | 61 |
| 8106 Melrose St | 0.37mi | 2/1.0 | 1,104 (-4%) | 20mo | $195,000 | $177 | 59 |
| 7905 Farnsworth St | 0.63mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,119 (-3%) | 14mo | $179,999 | $161 | 50 |
| 1820 Eubanks St | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,150 (-0%) | 21mo | $220,000 | $191 | 44 |
| 7703 Appleton St | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,037 (-10%) | 11mo | $185,000 | $178 | 43 |
| 8111 Roswell St | 0.54mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,195 (+4%) | 22mo | $310,000 | $259 | 41 |
| 8715 Bauman Rd #6 | 0.73mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,269 (+10%) | 2mo | $300,000 | $236 | 34 |
| 8802 Burden St | 0.58mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,287 (+12%) | 18mo | $254,500 | $198 | 34 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -19.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.30×
- Total profit
- $-32,253
- Equity at exit
- $24,602
- IRR
- -9.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.37×
- Total profit
- $-29,177
- Equity at exit
- $14,266
Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 77022
- Home prices YoY
- -33.2%
- Rents YoY
- 4.5%
- Active inventory
- 285
- Price-to-rent
- 10.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,336 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$865
- Tax from tax record
- −$240 /mo · $2,884/yr
- Insurance
- −$69
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$281
- Net cashflow
- $-119
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-25 | -5% $-72 | +0% $-119 | +5% $-165 | +10% $-212 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-224 | -5% $-172 | +0% $-119 | +5% $-66 | +10% $-13 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-36 | -0.5pp $-77 | base $-119 | +0.5pp $-161 | +1.0pp $-205 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $41,250
- Closing costs
- $4,950
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 39 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8855 McGallion Rd Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 751 | $1,303 | $1.73 | 44d | 6 | 0.55mi |
| 8855 McGallion Rd Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 751 | $1,303 | $1.73 | 16d | 16 | 0.55mi |
| 534 Firnat St Unit NA Houston, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1397 | $1,900 | $1.36 | 25d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 534 Firnat St Houston, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1397 | $1,900 | $1.36 | 44d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 8210 Bauman Rd Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 852 | $1,190 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 965 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1145 | $1,309 | $1.14 | 21d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 965 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 933 | $1,109 | $1.19 | 25d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 819 Tidwell Rd #819 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1100 | $1,300 | $1.18 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 139 Van Molan St Houston, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1056 | $925 | $0.88 | 44d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 815 Cravens St Apt F2 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1100 | $1,300 | $1.18 | 19d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 815 Cravens St Apt C1 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1100 | $1,300 | $1.18 | 6d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 8185 Fulton St Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,395 | $1.51 | 25d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 6918 Irvington Blvd Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,550 | $1.41 | 44d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 9406 Bauman Rd Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,076 | $1.20 | 44d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 9406 Bauman Rd Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,076 | $1.20 | 20d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 2006 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1035 | $1,075 | $1.04 | 44d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 8217 Fulton St Houston, TX | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0 | 785 | $930 | $1.18 | 3d | 6 | 0.97mi |
| 9400 Bauman Rd Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,207 | $1.51 | 23d | 6 | 0.97mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Unit 2174 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,344 | $1.45 | 12d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Unit 2112 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,304 | $1.41 | 0d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Unit 424 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,320 | $1.43 | 6d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,345 | $1.46 | 0d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Unit 8577 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,291 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Unit 422 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,320 | $1.43 | 8d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,395 | $1.51 | 44d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 8520 Madie Dr Houston, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 924 | $1,395 | $1.51 | 21d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 74 Lyerly St Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 775 | $1,211 | $1.56 | 21d | 5 | 1.13mi |
| 6869 Arto St Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $950 | $1.06 | 18d | 6 | 1.19mi |
| 7506 Jensen Dr Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 801 | $1,285 | $1.60 | 0d | 18 | 1.28mi |
| 7301 Jensen Dr Unit 50 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 880 | $999 | $1.14 | 8d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 7301 Jensen Dr Apt 12 Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 880 | $930 | $1.06 | 8d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 58 Bennington St Houston, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $850 | $1.17 | 19d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 58 Bennington St Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 950 | $950 | $1.00 | 25d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 58 Bennington St Houston, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $850 | $1.17 | 44d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 2530 Aldon St Unit 2530B Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1100 | $1,300 | $1.18 | 44d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 207 Lindale St Unit 1316403P Houston, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1119 | $3,187 | $2.85 | 0d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 7320 Jensen Dr Houston, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 935 | $1,010 | $1.08 | 3d | 5 | 1.37mi |
| 8326 Curry Rd Unit 1227052P Houston, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1270 | $3,317 | $2.61 | 0d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 5105 Airline Dr Houston, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 862 | $1,230 | $1.43 | 21d | 19 | 1.48mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $165,000 Active 182 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $165,000 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $165,000 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $165,000 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $165,000 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $165,000 Active 174 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $165,000 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $165,000 Active 169 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $165,000 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $165,000 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $165,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $165,000 Active 161 DOM
-
2025-12-21historical
Show marketing remark (233 chars)
CASH FLOWING PROPERTY , TENANT OCCUPIED LOCATION THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. KEEP AS A LONG TERM HOLD, OR BUILD YOUR DREAM HOME LATER. AREA IS BOOMING, WITH MAJOR FREEWAYS CLOSE, SHOPPING, AND RESTAURANTS.
-
2025-12-21$165,000 Active 233-char remark
Show marketing remark (233 chars)
CASH FLOWING PROPERTY , TENANT OCCUPIED LOCATION THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. KEEP AS A LONG TERM HOLD, OR BUILD YOUR DREAM HOME LATER. AREA IS BOOMING, WITH MAJOR FREEWAYS CLOSE, SHOPPING, AND RESTAURANTS.
-
2025-08-22$299,000 Active
-
2025-08-22historical
-
2025-04-09$200,000 Active
-
1997-04-10soldstatus $27,265
-
1997-02-18soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $2,884 · $240/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,020 · $252/mo
- Expected delta
- +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 4.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $16,035
- − Mortgage interest
- −$9,243
- − Property taxes
- −$2,884
- − Insurance
- −$825
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,283
- − Management
- −$1,283
- − Depreciation
- −$4,800
- Taxable loss
- −$4,282
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,028
- After-tax cash flow
- $-397/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Houston ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4823640
- Math proficiency
- 27% ▼ -18.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 35% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $46,054
- Composite
- 26.63/100
- National rank
- #7173
- State rank
- #593 of 826 in TX
Livability — Houston
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #184
- US rank
- #4771
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Houston, TX
- County
- Harris County · 4,702,590 people
- City population
- 3,226,434
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,805
- Household income
- $52,739
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1354.0
Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 5,571,493 people
- By 2030
- 6,089,821 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 7,142,806 · +28.2%
- By 2050
- 8,185,864 · +46.9%
- By 2075
- 10,574,329 · +89.8%
- By 2100
- 12,109,958 · +117.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 24% Black 19% White 7% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 54%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 30% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 40% English-only · Spanish 59%
Political lean MEDSL · Harris
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -151.13%
- Current HPI
- 304.3745
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 4.47%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Price history
+505.2% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2025-12-21 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
- 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2025-08-22 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
- 2025-04-09 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
- 1997-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $27,265 Public Records
- 1997-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+8.9%/yrLatest (2025): $2,884 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…