248 Swan Field Ave Lot 276 QUINCY · Ranson, WV 25438

$290,390

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,315 sqft · Townhouse · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $276k · 5% over $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

OCTOBER 2026 DELIVERY!! Discover modern living at its finest in Shenandoah Springs community in the heart of Ranson, WV! Introducing the Quincy floor plan by Lennar designed with YOU in mind. This 3-level townhome boasts a rear-load 1-car garage, entry level bedroom and full bath! The second level is host to an open concept floorplan that seamlessly connects a Great Room, dining area and a rear modern kitchen which features beautiful Valle Nevado granite countertops and Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, with 9' feet ceilings and Barnett Duraform cabinets in Linen. Included on the top floor, there are two bedrooms, including the luxurious owner’s suite, which offers residents a r

Key facts

• 10x12 deck
• Outdoor living
• $55 HOA

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• BARNETT DURAFORM CABINETS
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK IN CLOSET
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• 10X12 DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ranson Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #374 of 377 statewide, top 99%, 250 students, 0% FRL); Charles Town Middle School (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #40 of 109 statewide, top 37%, 637 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D-, #9 of 110 statewide, top 7%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,408 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Swan Field Ave Lot 233 QUINCY	0.00mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,315 (0%)	5mo	$289,290	$220	89
291 Short Br Lot 236 QUINCY	0.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,315 (0%)	4mo	$275,000	$209	86
279 Sandy Bottom Cir Lot 84 QUINCY	0.15mi	3/3.5	1,315 (0%)	9mo	$261,990	$199	86
271 Sandy Bottom Cir Lot 82 QUINCY	0.15mi	3/3.5	1,315 (0%)	11mo	$279,990	$213	84
31 Short Br Lot 169 QUINCY	0.24mi	3/3.5	1,315 (0%)	6mo	$265,000	$202	84
23 Short Br Lot 171 QUINCY	0.24mi	3/3.5	1,315 (0%)	6mo	$275,690	$210	84
55 Rolling Branch Dr Lot 144 QUINCY	0.22mi	3/3.5	1,315 (0%)	8mo	$276,640	$210	83
311 Sandy Bottom Cir Lot 127 QUINCY	0.15mi	3/3.5	1,328 (+1%)	11mo	$271,990	$205	82
328 Water Course Dr Lot 159 QUINCY	0.26mi	3/3.5	1,315 (0%)	9mo	$272,040	$207	81
352 Anthem St #443	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,387 (+6%)	1mo	$292,990	$211	52
372 Anthem St #448	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,387 (+6%)	1mo	$288,990	$208	48
364 Anthem St	0.73mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,387 (+6%)	1mo	$292,490	$211	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $135,286
• Equity at exit: $261,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $416,561
• Equity at exit: $564,164

Cash invested: $81,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,523
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,356/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,610

Max offer price $238,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-260	+0% $-360	+5% $-460	+10% $-561
Rent	-10% $-530	-5% $-445	+0% $-360	+5% $-275	+10% $-190
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-286	base $-360	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,598
• Closing costs: $8,712
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
271 Swan Field Ave Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,100	$1.18	5d	1	0.08mi
495 National St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,850	$1.39	26d	1	0.83mi
163 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,500	$1.80	6d	1	0.99mi
300 Presidents Pointe Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	20d	1	0.99mi
99 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$2,000	$1.44	26d	1	1.02mi
34 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,850	$1.32	3d	1	1.05mi
1130 Stallion St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	7d	1	1.08mi
36 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.08mi
214 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$1,925	$1.39	20d	1	1.13mi
603 N Fairfax Blvd Ranson, WV	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,850	$1.78	14d	1	1.29mi
452 18th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,895	$1.10	0d	1	1.29mi
405 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,150	$1.25	7d	1	1.30mi
415 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,990	$1.31	26d	1	1.30mi
1308 Cedar Valley Rd Unit 1308 Ranson, WV	2.0	4.0	1333	$1,899	$1.42	26d	1	1.30mi
1344 Red Clover Ln Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1723	$2,099	$1.22	14d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $290,390 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-03
   price $290,390
4. 2026-02-10
   price $285,390
5. 2026-01-29
   listed $282,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,266
• − Property taxes: −$4,356
• − Insurance: −$1,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,448
• Taxable loss: −$9,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,272
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $290,390 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $285,390 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $282,390 BRIGHT MLS