2102 Bogey Dr · Penitas, TX 78572

$80,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured · 131 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 3,396 sqft lot $78/sqft · 14% below area Est $93k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

City of Mission -Leisure Valley Ranch RV & M/H Park - Beautiful Fully Furnished Mobile Home, One Bedroom, 1 Full Bath and a Half Bath, Two Living areas, Built Ins, Custom Drapes, Built in 2019, 1,024 Square Foot (HCAD). The Lot Size is 3,396 Square Foot (HCAD). Community Pool, Golf Course and Club House! The Golf Cart may be sold separately. Schedule a tour! Expressway 83 and Western Rd area.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Two living areas
• Built in 2019

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED MOBILE HOME
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• BUILT IN 2019
• COMMUNITY POOL
• GOLF COURSE
• CLUB HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Penitas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#820 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.06%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,222
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -14.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7706 Bunker Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,078 (+5%)	14mo	$115,500	$107	68
7305 Bogey Dr	0.33mi	1/1.0	976 (-5%)	9mo	$78,000	$80	67
2404 W Bogey Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (+1)	896 (-12%)	3mo	$89,900	$100	63
7521 Par Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+6%)	16mo	$112,900	$105	62
7613 Bunker Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (+1)	909 (-11%)	15mo	$112,900	$124	57
7410 Birdie Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (+1)	960 (-6%)	20mo	$99,900	$104	57
7414 Birdie Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,082 (+6%)	24mo	$87,000	$80	55
7211 Bogey Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (+1)	896 (-12%)	6mo	$94,000	$105	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $3,942
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $19,412
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $327	+0% $300	+5% $272	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $257	+0% $300	+5% $342	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $320	base $300	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2503 Double Eagle Dr Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	44d	1	0.31mi
1908 Kennedy St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,300	$1.22	24d	1	0.80mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Unit 15 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	945	$925	$0.98	44d	1	0.93mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Fl STW 1 WITH BALCONY) FRONT UNIT Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	945	$895	$0.95	44d	1	0.93mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Unit 12 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$995	$0.90	21d	1	0.93mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Unit 20 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$995	$0.90	44d	1	0.93mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Fl STW 3 WITH NO BALCONY) Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	945	$895	$0.95	19d	1	0.94mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Fl STW 4 WITH PORCH) FRONT UNIT Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	44d	1	0.94mi
3717 Clavel St Unit 8 Palmview, TX	2.0	1.0	1005	$800	$0.80	44d	1	0.98mi
3711 Chapa AVE Palmview, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,150	$1.16	14d	1	1.04mi
3706 Chapa AVE Palmview, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2025-12-18
   listed $80,000 Active 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   City of Mission -Leisure Valley Ranch RV & M/H Park - Beautiful Fully Furnished Mobile Home, One Bedroom, 1 Full Bath and a Half Bath, Two Living areas, Built Ins, Custom Drapes, Built in 2019, 1,024 Square Foot (HCAD). The Lot Size is 3,396 Square Foot (HCAD). Community Pool, Golf Course and Club House! The Golf Cart may be sold separately. Schedule a tour! Expressway 83 and Western Rd area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$593
• After-tax cash flow: $3,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor exterior siding — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures — dated fixtures can deter potential buyers
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — improved curb appeal can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures — dated fixtures can deter potential buyers ↑
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — improved curb appeal can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Penitas

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #820
• US rank: #14866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $80,000 RGVMLS