3130 Cottonshire Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$185,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1982 4,730 sqft lot $150/sqft · 6% below area Est $196k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

Key facts

• 4,730 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $185k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,209
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -5.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22843 Spruce Summit Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	21mo	$236,000	$171	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,957
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,459
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,639/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $307	+0% $255	+5% $203	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $169	+0% $255	+5% $341	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $302	base $255	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Pending 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Pending 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Pending 190 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Pending 189 DOM
5. 2026-05-08
   status Active 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

6. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

7. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

8. 2026-04-25
   historical 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

9. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

10. 2026-04-13
    status Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

11. 2026-04-10
    status Pending 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

12. 2026-04-01
    status Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

13. 2026-03-31
    historical 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

14. 2026-01-01
    status Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

15. 2025-12-31
    historical 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

16. 2025-10-30
    listed $199,900 Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 Beds , 2 Bath , 2 Car Garage with plenty of space for the family . Great location close to everything .

17. 2007-06-30
    historical
18. 2007-02-20
    listed $89,000
19. 2003-05-21
    soldstatus
20. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,639 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,639 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,639
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62
• After-tax cash flow: $2,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+366.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-02-20 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2003-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,639 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.