2578 Tovar Trl #33 · Kachina Village, AZ 86005

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 623 sqft · MultiFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2019 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2019. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath in peaceful Kachina Village. Cozy with modern updates, open layout, just a quick drive from Flagstaff. Enjoy quiet pine living close to I-17, and Flagstaff. Ideal as a full-time residence or weekend getaway. Located on a land lease with lot rent.

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $160k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Kachina Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#85 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $160k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,111
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $55,658
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86005

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $274	+0% $219	+5% $163	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $153	+0% $219	+5% $285	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $259	base $219	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-04-08
    listed $160,000 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Built in 2019. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath in peaceful Kachina Village. Cozy with modern updates, open layout, just a quick drive from Flagstaff. Enjoy quiet pine living close to I-17, and Flagstaff. Ideal as a full-time residence or weekend getaway. Located on a land lease with lot rent.

19. 2025-07-25
    historical $1,700
20. 2025-06-14
    listed $1,700
21. 2024-04-22
    historical 9-char remark

    Show marketing remark (9 chars)

    For Comps

22. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed 9-char remark

    Show marketing remark (9 chars)

    For Comps

23. 2024-04-22
    listed $105,000 9-char remark

    Show marketing remark (9 chars)

    For Comps

24. 2023-09-24
    historical $1,600
25. 2023-08-29
    listed $1,600
26. 2022-08-21
    price $1,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $82
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $2,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including major work on the siding, roof, and landscaping. Immediate action is needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant weathering and damage
• Major roof — No visible damage, but not inspected
• Major exterior — Overgrown yard, debris
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but not inspected

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Siding and roof repairs — Essential for structural integrity and appearance
• Both HVAC/mechanicals inspection and repair — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant weathering and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Overgrown yard, debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Siding and roof repairs — Essential for structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals inspection and repair — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Kachina Village

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #13165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kachina Village, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,961
• Household income: $87,942
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 830.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Native American 9% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.98%
• Current HPI: 408.8541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.13%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+10566.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $160,000 NAZMLS
• 2025-07-25 Rental Removed $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-14 Listed for Rent $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-22 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-04-22 Listed $105,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-09-24 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-29 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2022-08-21 Price Changed $1,500 APPFOLIO