1613 Orne St · Mascotte, FL 34753

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2020 0.26 ac lot Est $279k · 8% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Searching for a 3-bed single family home in Mascotte with water views, modern finishes, and a spacious lot? Welcome to 1613 Orne Street in the sought-after Lake Jackson Ridge community. Built in 2020, this move-in-ready home offers the ideal balance of peaceful suburban living and convenient access to Orlando, Clermont, Groveland, and major Central Florida roadways. This beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features 1,244 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space situated on an oversized 11,397 square foot lot with scenic rear water views. Inside, the open-concept layout creates an inviting atmosphere for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with gr

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Sentry Management; HOA required, $360 annually ($30/month equivalent); Community features include sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 20x20 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered rear patio/porch; Patio; Rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Paved asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan with living/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mascotte Elementary School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 855 students, 62% FRL, charter); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,856 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,656
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 N Sunset Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-6%)	2mo	$120,000	$102	69
120 Brittany Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,123 (-10%)	2mo	$295,000	$263	66
5001 Pine Needle Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-1%)	7mo	$275,000	$224	61
10 Bay Ridge Loop	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,195 (-4%)	9mo	$230,000	$192	54
16029 Worthington Blvd N	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-2%)	16mo	$305,000	$250	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $135,751
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $421,730
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34753

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,421/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,759

Max offer price $223,122

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-265	-5% $-350	+0% $-435	+5% $-520	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-522	+0% $-435	+5% $-347	+10% $-260
Rate	-1.0pp $-284	-0.5pp $-358	base $-435	+0.5pp $-512	+1.0pp $-591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
232 Boca Ciega Rd Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1280	$2,095	$1.64	14d	1	0.36mi
538 Orange St Unit 538 Mascotte, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	4d	1	0.48mi
4025 E Cardinal Pines Dr Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,100	$1.67	6d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $299,900 Active
16. 2020-12-29
    soldstatus $850,286
17. 2020-11-20
    soldstatus $9,255
18. 2020-08-07
    soldstatus $13,986
19. 2020-07-08
    historical
20. 2020-07-01
    price $233,900
21. 2020-07-01
    status Active
22. 2020-06-27
    historical Contingent - Financing
23. 2020-06-24
    status Pending
24. 2020-05-29
    listed $232,900 Active
25. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,421 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,421 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,421
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$10,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,530
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,985
• Household income: $83,868
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 25% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.01%
• Current HPI: 281.96
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-78.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $850,286 Public Records
• 2020-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $9,255 Public Records
• 2020-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $13,986 Public Records
• 2020-07-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-01 Price Changed $233,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-27 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-29 Listed $232,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,421 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.