3907 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1981 1,655 sqft lot $178/sqft · 15% below area Est $218k · 15% under $538/mo HOA · 26% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to timeless Jensen Beach living! This beautifully 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa perfectly blends the charm of an established community with fresh, modern finishes. Step inside to discover stunning new tile flooring throughout and soft coastal bathrooms that evoke relaxed Florida living at its finest. The location simply can't be beat minutes to pristine beaches, world-class dining, shopping, championship golf courses, and deep-water boat ramps. Whether you're casting a line in the Intracoastal, enjoying sunset cocktails at waterfront restaurants, or exploring the vibrant downtown Jensen Beach scene, you'll love the effortless lifestyle this home offers. This mature, well-maintained community provides the perfect backdrop for your Florida dream—peaceful, convenient, and surrounded by everything that makes Jensen Beach one of the Treasure Coast's most sought-after destinations. Your coastal escape awaits!

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• Coastal bathrooms
• $538 HOA

Tags

• NEW TILE FLOORING
• COASTAL BATHROOMS
• DEEP-WATER BOAT RAMPS
• VIBRANT DOWNTOWN JENSEN BEACH
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($334/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Jensen Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $128k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,099
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -15.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3904 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	3mo	$190,000	$183	96
3912 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	5mo	$220,000	$212	93
3957 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	8mo	$156,000	$150	88
4081 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	6mo	$180,000	$174	86
4083 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	5mo	$212,000	$204	85
3921 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	17mo	$200,000	$193	83
4065 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	10mo	$196,000	$189	82
3917 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	20mo	$165,000	$159	81
3927 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	21mo	$180,000	$174	79
4054 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	17mo	$195,000	$188	78
1750 NW Sunset Blvd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+4%)	17mo	$300,000	$278	51
2319 NW Sunset Blvd	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,116 (+8%)	8mo	$347,000	$311	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,084
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-40,919
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $455/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$538
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,000	$1.93	23d	1	0.03mi
4116 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,100	$2.03	14d	1	0.08mi
4041 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,000	$1.93	23d	1	0.23mi
3769 NW Mediterranean Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	795	$1,700	$2.14	23d	1	0.28mi
3624 NW Adriatic Ln Unit 308 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,659	$2.12	23d	1	0.29mi
3655 NW Adriatic Ln #307 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,595	$2.04	14d	1	0.30mi
3690 NW Mediterranean Ln Unit 12-305 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,850	$1.73	23d	1	0.30mi
3663 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,195	$1.75	14d	1	0.30mi
3805 NW Mediterranean Ln Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,975	$1.85	14d	1	0.30mi
3628 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,875	$1.76	14d	1	0.30mi
3605 NW Adriatic Ln Unit 7-103 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,850	$1.73	14d	1	0.30mi
3620 NW Adriatic Ln #306 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,595	$2.04	23d	1	0.30mi
3614 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	23d	1	0.30mi
3617 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	802	$1,595	$1.99	23d	1	0.35mi
3781 NW Willow Creek Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$2,700	$2.03	23d	1	0.46mi
3751 NW Willow Creek Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$2,900	$1.98	23d	1	0.48mi
2444 SE Garden Ter Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	861	$1,950	$2.26	14d	1	1.04mi
2416 SE Garden Ter #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	861	$1,700	$1.97	23d	1	1.07mi
2774 SE Brevard Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	23d	1	1.11mi
1010 NW Fresco Way Jensen Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,122	$2.10	14d	10	1.34mi
2273 NW 22nd Ave #104 Stuart, FL	3.0	3.0	1388	$3,600	$2.59	23d	1	1.43mi
2289 SE Seamist St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,500	$2.48	23d	1	1.45mi
2283 NW 22nd Ave #104 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$2,100	$1.96	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $538 · $6,456/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $185,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    price $199,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Welcome to timeless Jensen Beach living! This beautifully 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa perfectly blends the charm of an established community with fresh, modern finishes. Step inside to discover stunning new tile flooring throughout and soft coastal bathrooms that evoke relaxed Florida living at its finest. The location simply can't be beat minutes to pristine beaches, world-class dining, shopping, championship golf courses, and deep-water boat ramps. Whether you're casting a line in the Intracoastal, enjoying sunset cocktails at waterfront restaurants, or exploring the vibrant downtown Jensen Beach scene, you'll love the effortless lifestyle this home offers. This mature, well-maintained community provides the perfect backdrop for your Florida dream—peaceful, convenient, and surrounded by everything that makes Jensen Beach one of the Treasure Coast's most sought-after destinations. Your coastal escape awaits!

18. 2026-02-19
    listed $208,000 Active 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Welcome to timeless Jensen Beach living! This beautifully 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa perfectly blends the charm of an established community with fresh, modern finishes. Step inside to discover stunning new tile flooring throughout and soft coastal bathrooms that evoke relaxed Florida living at its finest. The location simply can't be beat minutes to pristine beaches, world-class dining, shopping, championship golf courses, and deep-water boat ramps. Whether you're casting a line in the Intracoastal, enjoying sunset cocktails at waterfront restaurants, or exploring the vibrant downtown Jensen Beach scene, you'll love the effortless lifestyle this home offers. This mature, well-maintained community provides the perfect backdrop for your Florida dream—peaceful, convenient, and surrounded by everything that makes Jensen Beach one of the Treasure Coast's most sought-after destinations. Your coastal escape awaits!

19. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $128,000
20. 2018-11-26
    soldstatus $128,000 Sold 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

21. 2018-11-07
    status Pending 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

22. 2018-11-07
    status Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

23. 2018-11-06
    historical 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

24. 2018-09-24
    status Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

25. 2018-09-18
    status Pending 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

26. 2018-05-10
    listed $134,900 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Great community for first time home buyers, investor or 2nd home near the beach. This lovely updated 2 bedroom 2 bath villa with courtyard, in desirable Jensen Beach is ready to move into. New floors, recently painted, close to the beaches, shopping and great restaurants! Pet friendly, with community pool! Cinnamon Tree is where you want to be!

27. 2016-09-07
    soldstatus $87,000
28. 2016-06-26
    historical
29. 2007-01-23
    listed $142,500
30. 2004-11-23
    soldstatus $129,500
31. 2004-10-05
    soldstatus $73,000
32. 2002-02-18
    historical
33. 2002-02-06
    listed $65,000
34. 1999-06-29
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,081/yr (+$90/mo · 237.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$455
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − HOA: −$6,456
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$603
• After-tax cash flow: $938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+342.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $199,000 MCRTC
• 2026-02-19 Listed $208,000 MCRTC
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-26 Sold (MLS) $128,000 MCRTC
• 2018-11-07 Pending — MCRTC
• 2018-11-07 Relisted — MCRTC
• 2018-11-06 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2018-09-24 Relisted — MCRTC
• 2018-09-18 Pending — MCRTC
• 2018-05-10 Listed $134,900 MCRTC
• 2016-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-26 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2007-01-23 Listed $142,500 MCRTC
• 2004-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records
• 2004-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-18 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2002-02-06 Listed $65,000 Beaches MLS
• 1999-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $455 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.