263 S Paseo Madera Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 51 Days on market

Built 1964 Fair condition $415/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 1 Bdrm all tile floor, out with the old tub, and in with a new tiled shower, with Sliding doors, Newer cabinets and Appliances, Storage area in kitchen converted to nice office area, great use of space. There are 6 resturants within walking distance. The Villas take care of bldgs, grounds, roof, heating and cooling equipment, hot wtr tank, water, sewer, roads, garbage. GVR IS OPTIONAL on this unit, Come and see before it is gone.

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Community pool
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• NEWER CABINETS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• ASSIGNED PARKING
• PRIME LOCATION
• COMMUNITY POOL
• WELL-MAINTAINED VILLA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Villas East; HOA fee $415 per month; Community pool; Paved street maintained by county

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Patio; East/West exposure; Paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: Furnished; Ceramic tile floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-575/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $100k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,965 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-15,373
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-649
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $92,965

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-13	+0% $-48	+5% $-82	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-101	+0% $-48	+5% $5	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-23	base $-48	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	25d	1	0.07mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.09mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	4d	1	0.12mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.12mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	4d	1	0.17mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	19d	1	0.19mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.19mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	25d	1	0.20mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.22mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	25d	1	0.23mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	3d	1	0.28mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2017-09-13
    soldstatus $50,500 Closed 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Updated 1 Bdrm all tile floor, out with the old tub, and in with a new tiled shower, with Sliding doors, Newer cabinets and Appliances, Storage area in kitchen converted to nice office area, great use of space. There are 6 resturants within walking distance. The Villas take care of bldgs, grounds, roof, heating and cooling equipment, hot wtr tank, water, sewer, roads, garbage. GVR IS OPTIONAL on this unit, Come and see before it is gone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $-98/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom villa requires a moderate renovation to improve its condition and value. Focus on painting and updating the kitchen cabinets for both resale and rental appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major paint — paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint job — enhances curb appeal and interior
• Both kitchen cabinets — newer cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · paint appears faded and needs touch-up	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint job — enhances curb appeal and interior ↑
• Both kitchen cabinets — newer cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+107.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-09-13 Sold (MLS) $50,500 MLSSAZ