28814 Golden Wheat Ct · Houston, TX 77447

$258,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC) with annual fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $258,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $306,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-738/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,105 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,490
• List price: $258,990
• Delta: -15.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+2%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	94
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+2%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	90
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+11%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	80
16303 Golden Corral Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-5%)	1mo	$332,990	$201	77
16315 Golden Corral Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-5%)	1mo	$318,990	$193	77
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+1%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	77
16307 Golden Corral Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	64
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+10%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	62
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	61
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	60
28538 Golden Hay Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-5%)	1mo	$291,990	$178	59
28514 Golden Hay Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-5%)	1mo	$282,990	$172	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-61,477
• Equity at exit: $45,699

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-89,074
• Equity at exit: $26,500

Cash invested: $85,817 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,607
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,597/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,808

Max offer price $297,596

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $44	+0% $-61	+5% $-167	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-169	+0% $-61	+5% $46	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $16	base $-61	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,622
• Closing costs: $9,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.13mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	44d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $261,640 600-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $265,990 Active 600-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   price $265,990 414-char remark
4. 2026-05-02
   listed $278,990 Active 414-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,168
• − Property taxes: −$4,597
• − Insurance: −$1,532
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,916
• Taxable loss: −$5,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,415
• After-tax cash flow: $678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in good condition. The home is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and landscaping. Upgrades to the exterior, interior, and mechanical systems can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Upgraded flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the windows — Newer, energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Upgraded flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the windows — Newer, energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $258,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $261,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $265,990 HARMLS