9975 Grove Ct · Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23061

$254,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1989 0.46 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1989 ranch offering 1,644 sq ft with an open floor plan for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features tile flooring, Corian countertops, and a bar overlooking the family room, which flows into the dining area. Utility room off kitchen includes washer/dryer, pantry storage, and space for a freezer. LVP flooring throughout main areas and bedrooms. Hall bath offers tile floor, granite vanity, and walk-in shower. Primary suite includes Jacuzzi tub (new motor), walk-in shower, granite vanity, and 2 walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms each have 2 closets. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Bay windows front and rear provide great natural light. Whole house propane generator, fenced backyard & screened porch. Updates include LED lighting in Huge 624 sq ft Detached 2-car, 2 door garage with steps to unfinished upper level, new well pump/bladder tank, HVAC blower motor & heat strip, shower heads, and Security cameras convey. Fresh mulch and new front handrails. Quiet street!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.5% in Gloucester Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,063 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,925
• Equity at exit: $38,014

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,053
• Equity at exit: $22,043

Cash invested: $71,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23061

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,943

Max offer price $254,950

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $315	+0% $243	+5% $171	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $154	+0% $243	+5% $332	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $308	base $243	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,738
• Closing costs: $7,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Beautiful 1989 ranch offering 1,644 sq ft with an open floor plan for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features tile flooring, Corian countertops, and a bar overlooking the family room, which flows into the dining area. Utility room off kitchen includes washer/dryer, pantry storage, and space for a freezer. LVP flooring throughout main areas and bedrooms. Hall bath offers tile floor, granite vanity, and walk-in shower. Primary suite includes Jacuzzi tub (new motor), walk-in shower, granite vanity, and 2 walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms each have 2 closets. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Bay windows front and rear provide great natural light. Whole house propane generator, fenced backyard & screened porch. Updates include LED lighting in Huge 624 sq ft Detached 2-car, 2 door garage with steps to unfinished upper level, new well pump/bladder tank, HVAC blower motor & heat strip, shower heads, and Security cameras convey. Fresh mulch and new front handrails. Quiet street!

2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Beautiful 1989 ranch offering 1,644 sq ft with an open floor plan for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features tile flooring, Corian countertops, and a bar overlooking the family room, which flows into the dining area. Utility room off kitchen includes washer/dryer, pantry storage, and space for a freezer. LVP flooring throughout main areas and bedrooms. Hall bath offers tile floor, granite vanity, and walk-in shower. Primary suite includes Jacuzzi tub (new motor), walk-in shower, granite vanity, and 2 walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms each have 2 closets. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Bay windows front and rear provide great natural light. Whole house propane generator, fenced backyard & screened porch. Updates include LED lighting in Huge 624 sq ft Detached 2-car, 2 door garage with steps to unfinished upper level, new well pump/bladder tank, HVAC blower motor & heat strip, shower heads, and Security cameras convey. Fresh mulch and new front handrails. Quiet street!

3. 2026-04-23
   listed $254,950 Active 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Beautiful 1989 ranch offering 1,644 sq ft with an open floor plan for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features tile flooring, Corian countertops, and a bar overlooking the family room, which flows into the dining area. Utility room off kitchen includes washer/dryer, pantry storage, and space for a freezer. LVP flooring throughout main areas and bedrooms. Hall bath offers tile floor, granite vanity, and walk-in shower. Primary suite includes Jacuzzi tub (new motor), walk-in shower, granite vanity, and 2 walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms each have 2 closets. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Bay windows front and rear provide great natural light. Whole house propane generator, fenced backyard & screened porch. Updates include LED lighting in Huge 624 sq ft Detached 2-car, 2 door garage with steps to unfinished upper level, new well pump/bladder tank, HVAC blower motor & heat strip, shower heads, and Security cameras convey. Fresh mulch and new front handrails. Quiet street!

4. 2026-04-22
   listed $254,950 Active
5. 2021-09-23
   soldstatus $180,000
6. 2021-09-20
   status Under Contract
7. 2021-08-13
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2021-08-11
   status Active
9. 2021-08-10
   status Under Contract
10. 2021-08-03
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2021-07-23
    listed $180,000 Active
12. 2017-05-10
    listed $154,000
13. 2015-11-20
    listed $150,000
14. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$992/yr (+$83/mo · 90.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,281
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$7,417
• Taxable loss: −$1,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$332
• After-tax cash flow: $3,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gloucester Courthouse

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #4823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,219
• Population (ZIP): 23,219

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 175.0236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+292.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $254,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $254,950 REINMLS
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-20 Pending — REINMLS
• 2021-08-13 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2021-08-11 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2021-08-10 Pending — REINMLS
• 2021-08-03 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2021-07-23 Listed $180,000 REINMLS
• 2017-05-10 Listed $154,000 WMLS
• 2015-11-20 Listed $150,000 WMLS
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.