3862 E Narrowleaf Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$535,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2016 5,175 sqft lot Est $582k · 8% under $117/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Key facts

• 5,175 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $350; Community biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 cars; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Sprinklers in rear; Desert-style front landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Grass in back yard; Automatic water timer front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Reverse osmosis / water purifier; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-944 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (43.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bridges Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #13 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 759 students, 7% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,668 (43.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.56%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $582,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3918 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,940 (0%)	3mo	$502,000	$259	84
3911 E Sourwood Dr	0.10mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,940 (0%)	4mo	$475,000	$245	83
3843 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-7%)	4mo	$540,000	$300	75
3870 E Ficus Way	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (+12%)	2mo	$633,000	$291	63
4033 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,114 (+9%)	0mo	$615,000	$291	61
3667 E Jude Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,202 (+14%)	2mo	$685,000	$311	54
3716 E Lodgepole Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-14%)	3mo	$521,700	$311	54
5066 S Moccasin Trl	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,004 (+3%)	1mo	$585,000	$292	49
3392 E Myrtabel Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,079 (+7%)	1mo	$645,000	$310	48
5199 S Moccasin Trl	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,177 (+12%)	1mo	$690,000	$317	47
5193 S Moccasin Trl	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,177 (+12%)	2mo	$675,000	$310	46
3420 E Indigo St	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,177 (+12%)	2mo	$600,000	$276	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $176,590
• Equity at exit: $419,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $566,222
• Equity at exit: $846,163

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,181/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-944

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,212

Max offer price $368,224

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-641	-5% $-793	+0% $-944	+5% $-1,096	+10% $-1,247
Rent	-10% $-1,182	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-944	+5% $-825	+10% $-706
Rate	-1.0pp $-675	-0.5pp $-808	base $-944	+0.5pp $-1,083	+1.0pp $-1,224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5434 S Forest Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2341	$2,900	$1.24	20d	1	0.06mi
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	14d	1	0.20mi
3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$3,075	$1.69	18d	1	0.29mi
4279 E Sourwood Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2156	$10,600	$4.92	0d	1	0.52mi
5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,575	$1.54	0d	1	0.61mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	45d	1	0.88mi
3432 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,695	$1.78	3d	1	0.92mi
3830 E Thornton Ave Unit 1546326P Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2292	$3,902	$1.70	18d	1	0.94mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	45d	1	1.07mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	26d	1	1.08mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	1.10mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	7d	1	1.15mi
3441 E Baranca Ct Gilbert, AZ	5.0	2.0	1903	$2,855	$1.50	3d	1	1.15mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	16d	1	1.19mi
2983 E Ironside Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2450	$2,450	$1.00	45d	1	1.20mi
2954 E Coconino Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,590	$1.19	5d	1	1.23mi
4231 E Marshall Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,700	$1.22	5d	1	1.29mi
3570 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2536	$3,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.32mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	26d	1	1.37mi
2965 E Blue Ridge Way Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,400	$1.45	0d	1	1.38mi
2927 E Mead Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,250	$1.36	20d	1	1.39mi
4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,249	$1.30	22d	1	1.46mi
2717 E Ficus Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2295	$2,550	$1.11	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $535,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $535,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $535,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $535,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $535,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $535,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $535,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $540,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $540,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $540,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $540,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $540,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $540,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $540,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $540,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $540,000 Active
17. 2025-01-10
    status Active
18. 2025-01-10
    historical
19. 2025-01-09
    historical
20. 2025-01-04
    price $545,000
21. 2024-12-07
    price $550,000
22. 2024-11-20
    price $564,900
23. 2024-10-26
    price $575,000
24. 2024-10-05
    price $584,900
25. 2024-08-22
    listed $599,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,531 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,350/yr (+$113/mo · 61.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$2,181
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,896
• − Management: −$2,896
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable loss: −$21,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $540,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $545,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $550,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $564,900 ARMLS
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $575,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $584,900 ARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $599,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,181 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.