248 Rocky Point Rd · Vilonia, AR 72173

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 223 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2022 3.79 ac lot Est $180k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

3-year-old immaculately maintained single wide mobile home on a level nearly 4-acre lot in the Vilonia countryside. Gated driveway and the home sits back off the road with plenty of room for a shop, pool, and large backyard gatherings.

Key facts

• Room for a shop
• Gated driveway
• 3.79 acre lot

Tags

• GATED DRIVEWAY
• LEVEL NEARLY 4-ACRE LOT
• ROOM FOR A SHOP
• LARGE BACKYARD GATHERINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 3.79 acres; Lot dimensions roughly 390 x 420; Approximate living area sourced from tax records
• Financial info: Financing options: VA, FHA, Conventional loans or Cash

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric service (municipal/Entergy); Cable TV, Antenna TV, Satellite TV; Private telephone service; Insulated windows; Internet: cellular, fiber, satellite, wireless
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Metal/vinyl siding; Paved road access; Entry on main level
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fully fenced yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in stove; Microwave
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Sheetrock walls and ceilings; Luxury vinyl flooring; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Vilonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#108 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vilonia School District (rural): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #23 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vilonia Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 571 students, 46% FRL); Frank Mitchell Intermediate School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #42 of 201 statewide, top 22%, 654 students, 45% FRL); Vilonia High School (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #45 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 859 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,530 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,712
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Rocky Point Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$156	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $95,913
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $285,975
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72173

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $416/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $171,849

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-22	+0% $-74	+5% $-127	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-125	+0% $-74	+5% $-24	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-27	base $-74	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-01
   price $185,000
3. 2026-02-23
   status Price Change
4. 2026-02-20
   historical Take Backups
5. 2025-12-02
   price $190,000
6. 2025-09-13
   listed $195,000 New Listing
7. 2022-03-09
   historical
8. 2022-03-01
   price $89,900
9. 2022-02-09
   price $99,900
10. 2022-01-27
    listed $125,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 184.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$416
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,231
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vilonia School District
• NCES district ID: 0513530
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,913
• Composite: 40.64/100
• National rank: #3681
• State rank: #23 of 238 in AR

Livability — Vilonia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #10836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,122

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Current HPI: 298.3398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $185,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $190,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $195,000 CARMLS
• 2022-03-09 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-03-01 Price Changed $89,900 CARMLS
• 2022-02-09 Price Changed $99,900 CARMLS
• 2022-01-27 Listed $125,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $416 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.