398 Ebbsfleet Dr · Uhland, TX 78640

$229,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $180/sqft · 15% below area Est $272k · 15% under $47/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

398 Ebbsfleet Drive is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Watermill community in Uhland, TX. This home offers 1,280 sq. ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home perfect for any family. Entering the home you step into the foyer where there is a coat closet. Walking further into the home you will notice the open concept kitchen and living room. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen you will find the 2 secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Near the back of the home you are greeted with natural light from the windows in the living room. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room providing privacy. The main bedroom ensuite includes a walk-in-shower and an oversized closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Watermill.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Oversized closet
• Open concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN-SHOWER
• OVERSIZED CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of the WATERMILL HOA; Monthly association fee of $47; Association fee covers common area maintenance; Community amenities: common grounds, community mailbox, curbs, playground, park, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Single-story; New construction; Faces southeast; Entry level: main (single-level)
• Construction: Built by DR HORTON; HardiPlank-type siding; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Patio; Back yard fencing; Fenced yard; Landscaped; Automatic sprinklers; Few trees; Small trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Main level primary
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Smart home; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1819 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,921 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,904
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -15.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-48,363
• Equity at exit: $34,292

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-69,358
• Equity at exit: $19,885

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1819
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $213,149

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-30	+0% $-95	+5% $-160	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-162	+0% $-95	+5% $-29	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-37	base $-95	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,498
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,414	$0.97	13d	1	1.21mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	25d	1	1.38mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	25d	1	1.39mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,990 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,990 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,990 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,990 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $229,990 Active 1147-char remark
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $229,990 Active 1133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1133 chars)

    398 Ebbsfleet Drive is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Watermill community in Uhland, TX. This home offers 1,280 sq. ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home perfect for any family. Entering the home you step into the foyer where there is a coat closet. Walking further into the home you will notice the open concept kitchen and living room. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen you will find the 2 secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Near the back of the home you are greeted with natural light from the windows in the living room. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room providing privacy. The main bedroom ensuite includes a walk-in-shower and an oversized closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Watermill.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,238/yr (+$270/mo · 333.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,231
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,255
• After-tax cash flow: $111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $229,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $229,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.