4510 W 17th St · Pine Bluff, AR 71602

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1972 7,840 sqft lot Est $112k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New carpet and paint

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($762 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,266
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2304 Dianne Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,131 (-0%)	5mo	$147,200	$130	72
5012 Faucett	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,162 (+2%)	3mo	$114,900	$99	66
4114 W 10th Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,090 (-4%)	11mo	$45,000	$41	58
1320 S Oleander	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+3%)	24mo	$25,000	$21	52
4010 W 17th Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+15%)	0mo	$149,500	$115	51
5110 Faucett Rd	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (+8%)	1mo	$50,000	$41	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-4,862
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $5,133
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71602

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $617

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	44d	1	0.99mi
4324 Union Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	702	$650	$0.93	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2022-09-23
   soldstatus $62,000
2. 2022-08-26
   status Under Contract
3. 2022-08-08
   price $75,000
4. 2022-07-05
   listed $90,000 New Listing
5. 2017-11-01
   historical
6. 2017-04-08
   listed $35,000 New Listing
7. 2008-08-18
   soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$732
• − Management: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$41
• After-tax cash flow: $1,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• City population: 29,578
• Population (ZIP): 15,922

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.84%
• Current HPI: 223.9305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+463.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-26 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-08-08 Price Changed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Listed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2017-11-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-04-08 Listed $35,000 CARMLS
• 2008-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.