4000 Willow Ave · Castle Shannon, PA 15234

$129,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1920 2,526 sqft lot Est $95k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location!Location!Location!1 of a kind opportunity 2 live in a large, brick home, at the corner of Willow and St. Annes, across the street from the T, a short distance to shops & restaurants. Dont let the front steps fool you, you can also gain access thru the back door w only a few steps, very clean, move in ready home! Basement has plenty of storage plus a full bath, main flr boasts spacious liv and din rms plus large cherry eat in kitchen w original built-in, nice bedrm sizes, coverd frnt & bck porches

Key facts

• Corner lot townhouse
• Finished attic
• Fenced side yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT TOWNHOUSE
• HIGH PORCH
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PLENTY OF COUNTERTOP SPACE
• FINISHED ATTIC
• FENCED SIDE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Castle Shannon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 94/100 on livability (#4 in PA, #9 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+.
• Keystone Oaks SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #116 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $130k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4000 Willow Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$68	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,073
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,416
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15234

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,316/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4102 Willow Ave Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,780	$1.63	8d	1	0.16mi
957 Bockstoce Ave Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	0.20mi
799-B Cooke Dr Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	988	$1,495	$1.51	17d	1	0.34mi
405 Hoodridge Dr Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.48mi
930 Sleepy Hollow Rd Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,350	$1.32	44d	1	0.86mi
302 Kingsberry Cir Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.5	1750	$3,000	$1.71	2d	1	0.87mi
302 Kingsberry Cir Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.5	1750	$3,100	$1.77	20d	1	0.87mi
435 Abbeyville Rd Pittsburgh, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	880	$1,595	$1.81	2d	10	1.20mi
1310 Martha St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1061	$1,050	$0.99	12d	1	1.31mi
3131 May St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	17d	1	1.41mi
35 Highland Rd Bethel Park, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$2,170	$2.61	2d	24	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2015-05-12
   soldstatus $83,000
4. 2015-05-09
   price $83,000 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   Location!Location!Location!1 of a kind opportunity 2 live in a large, brick home, at the corner of Willow and St. Annes, across the street from the T, a short distance to shops & restaurants. Dont let the front steps fool you, you can also gain access thru the back door w only a few steps, very clean, move in ready home! Basement has plenty of storage plus a full bath, main flr boasts spacious liv and din rms plus large cherry eat in kitchen w original built-in, nice bedrm sizes, coverd frnt & bck porches

5. 2015-05-08
   price $89,900 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   Location!Location!Location!1 of a kind opportunity 2 live in a large, brick home, at the corner of Willow and St. Annes, across the street from the T, a short distance to shops & restaurants. Dont let the front steps fool you, you can also gain access thru the back door w only a few steps, very clean, move in ready home! Basement has plenty of storage plus a full bath, main flr boasts spacious liv and din rms plus large cherry eat in kitchen w original built-in, nice bedrm sizes, coverd frnt & bck porches

6. 2015-05-08
   soldstatus $83,000 Sold 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   Location!Location!Location!1 of a kind opportunity 2 live in a large, brick home, at the corner of Willow and St. Annes, across the street from the T, a short distance to shops & restaurants. Dont let the front steps fool you, you can also gain access thru the back door w only a few steps, very clean, move in ready home! Basement has plenty of storage plus a full bath, main flr boasts spacious liv and din rms plus large cherry eat in kitchen w original built-in, nice bedrm sizes, coverd frnt & bck porches

7. 2015-04-10
   listed Contingent 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   Location!Location!Location!1 of a kind opportunity 2 live in a large, brick home, at the corner of Willow and St. Annes, across the street from the T, a short distance to shops & restaurants. Dont let the front steps fool you, you can also gain access thru the back door w only a few steps, very clean, move in ready home! Basement has plenty of storage plus a full bath, main flr boasts spacious liv and din rms plus large cherry eat in kitchen w original built-in, nice bedrm sizes, coverd frnt & bck porches

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,316
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone Oaks SD
• NCES district ID: 4212750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,066
• Composite: 47.24/100
• National rank: #2314
• State rank: #116 of 539 in PA

Livability — Castle Shannon

• Score: 94/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #9

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Shannon, PA
• County: Allegheny County · 1,022,028 people
• City population: 14,330
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,014
• Household income: $78,366
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.99%
• Current HPI: 261.6436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $129,900 West Penn MLS
• 2015-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-09 Price Changed $83,000 West Penn MLS
• 2015-05-08 Sold (MLS) $83,000 West Penn MLS
• 2015-05-08 Price Changed $89,900 West Penn MLS
• 2015-04-10 Listed — West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,316 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.