89510 Highway 101 #16 · Heceta Beach, OR 97439

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2010 $638/mo HOA · 45% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cutie in Buck Lake Trailer Park with wonderful lake views. This home is just cozy as can be with a nice sunny front deck, back yard garden areas, room to park two cars in front and just across the street from the park areas where you can enjoy bbqing, have a fire, fish in the lake or just relax and enjoy the surroundings. The home boasts 412 square feet with a one bedroom, one bathroom and living room open to the front kitchen area. This home has been professionally cleaned and it's ready for its new owner. Buyer must be approved with park prior to closing. No land included in sale. Come see all this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Sunny front deck
• Lake views
• Park areas

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SUNNY FRONT DECK
• BACK YARD GARDEN AREAS
• PARK AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($73/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.9% in Heceta Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $75k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $41,616
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $123,003
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$638
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,397

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $638 · $7,656/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $75,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $78,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $80,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Cutie in Buck Lake Trailer Park with wonderful lake views. This home is just cozy as can be with a nice sunny front deck, back yard garden areas, room to park two cars in front and just across the street from the park areas where you can enjoy bbqing, have a fire, fish in the lake or just relax and enjoy the surroundings. The home boasts 412 square feet with a one bedroom, one bathroom and living room open to the front kitchen area. This home has been professionally cleaned and it's ready for its new owner. Buyer must be approved with park prior to closing. No land included in sale. Come see all this home has to offer.

17. 2020-05-01
    soldstatus $23,000 Sold 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Newer Park Model unit! Keep in place or remove to your own property. Or keep in place and enjoy Buck Lake views out your window or off your deck. Motivated seller.

18. 2020-04-19
    status Pending 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Newer Park Model unit! Keep in place or remove to your own property. Or keep in place and enjoy Buck Lake views out your window or off your deck. Motivated seller.

19. 2020-03-25
    status Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Newer Park Model unit! Keep in place or remove to your own property. Or keep in place and enjoy Buck Lake views out your window or off your deck. Motivated seller.

20. 2020-03-23
    historical 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Newer Park Model unit! Keep in place or remove to your own property. Or keep in place and enjoy Buck Lake views out your window or off your deck. Motivated seller.

21. 2020-03-20
    listed $25,000 Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Newer Park Model unit! Keep in place or remove to your own property. Or keep in place and enjoy Buck Lake views out your window or off your deck. Motivated seller.

22. 2010-03-01
    soldstatus $38,500 Sold
23. 2010-02-25
    status Pending
24. 2010-01-15
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − HOA: −$7,656
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable loss: −$748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$179
• After-tax cash flow: $253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Heceta Beach

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+100.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $80,000 RMLS
• 2020-05-01 Sold (MLS) $23,000 RMLS
• 2020-04-19 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-03-25 Relisted — RMLS
• 2020-03-23 Delisted — RMLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $25,000 RMLS
• 2010-03-01 Sold (MLS) $38,500 RMLS
• 2010-02-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2010-01-15 Listed $39,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.