10501 Johnson Hollow Rd · Pea Ridge, AR 72751

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2005 2.36 ac lot $144/sqft · 10% above area Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Edge of town, country vibes, private & discreet--the one you've been looking for! Come see this remodeled home featuring new paint, new floors, new fixtures, new appliances, new trim, new decks----the only thing this home is missing is NEW OWNERS! Large backyard with runoff creek & bridge; great for childhood adventures! 3 outbuildings give you space to setup your next workshop & project space. Circle drive, natural light, come see to believe.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Outbuildings
• Circle drive

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• LARGE BACKYARD
• RUNOFF CREEK
• OUTBUILDINGS
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-531/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pea Ridge School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #43 of 238 in AR (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $225k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,632 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,900
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10501 Johnson Hollow Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	1mo	$234,900	$131	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $82,469
• Equity at exit: $162,994

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $241,496
• Equity at exit: $316,244

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72751

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,052

Max offer price $218,591

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2415 England Ln Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,600	$1.55	14d	1	0.26mi
1400 Hickery St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	21d	1	0.75mi
1006 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	0.89mi
1002 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	0.90mi
308 Alder St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,625	$1.14	43d	1	0.90mi
308 Alder St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,625	$1.14	23d	1	0.90mi
112 Alder St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,625	$1.20	44d	1	0.91mi
942 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	0.91mi
940 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	0.91mi
938 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	23d	1	0.92mi
938 Seaborn Way Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	43d	1	0.92mi
536 Lewis St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,995	$1.21	21d	1	0.93mi
801 Lewis St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,000	$1.15	13d	1	0.96mi
1036 Tracey Ln Pea Ridge, AR	4.0	2.0	1911	$2,075	$1.09	23d	1	1.02mi
1812 Seay Cir Pea Ridge, AR	4.0	2.5	1854	$1,900	$1.02	44d	1	1.07mi
1393 Hutchinson St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,675	$1.06	43d	1	1.32mi
1910 Hahn St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,900	$1.22	43d	1	1.37mi
2301 Langford St Pea Ridge, AR	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,800	$1.10	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Edge of town, country vibes, private & discreet--the one you've been looking for! Come see this remodeled home featuring new paint, new floors, new fixtures, new appliances, new trim, new decks----the only thing this home is missing is NEW OWNERS! Large backyard with runoff creek & bridge; great for childhood adventures! 3 outbuildings give you space to setup your next workshop & project space. Circle drive, natural light, come see to believe.

2. 2026-04-17
   status Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Edge of town, country vibes, private & discreet--the one you've been looking for! Come see this remodeled home featuring new paint, new floors, new fixtures, new appliances, new trim, new decks----the only thing this home is missing is NEW OWNERS! Large backyard with runoff creek & bridge; great for childhood adventures! 3 outbuildings give you space to setup your next workshop & project space. Circle drive, natural light, come see to believe.

3. 2026-02-20
   status Pending 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Edge of town, country vibes, private & discreet--the one you've been looking for! Come see this remodeled home featuring new paint, new floors, new fixtures, new appliances, new trim, new decks----the only thing this home is missing is NEW OWNERS! Large backyard with runoff creek & bridge; great for childhood adventures! 3 outbuildings give you space to setup your next workshop & project space. Circle drive, natural light, come see to believe.

4. 2026-02-13
   listed $225,000 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Edge of town, country vibes, private & discreet--the one you've been looking for! Come see this remodeled home featuring new paint, new floors, new fixtures, new appliances, new trim, new decks----the only thing this home is missing is NEW OWNERS! Large backyard with runoff creek & bridge; great for childhood adventures! 3 outbuildings give you space to setup your next workshop & project space. Circle drive, natural light, come see to believe.

5. 2025-09-15
   soldstatus $92,000
6. 2017-10-02
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pea Ridge School District
• NCES district ID: 0503030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,156
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4546
• State rank: #43 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pea Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 9,997
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 9,997
• Household income: $95,299
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 83.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.48%
• Current HPI: 352.7133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+208.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $225,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $49 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.