400 Little York Rd · Clayton, OH 45414

$133,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1950 0.54 ac lot Est $149k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vandalia-Butler City (suburban): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #239 of 656 in OH (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Smith Middle School (math 73% / reading 70%, grade A-, #364 of 1,584 statewide, top 23%, 453 students, 32% FRL); Morton Middle School (math 55% / reading 61%, grade B, #297 of 654 statewide, top 46%, 715 students, 29% FRL); Butler High School (math 32% / reading 71%, grade D+, #371 of 781 statewide, top 48%, 860 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $112k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,369 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,925
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9020 Stoner Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	886 (-4%)	14mo	$139,900	$158	66
66 Dorchester Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	12mo	$170,000	$161	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,975
• Equity at exit: $19,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $27,498
• Equity at exit: $11,499

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45414

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $141	+0% $104	+5% $66	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $53	+0% $104	+5% $155	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $138	base $104	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
651 Rustic Oak Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	878	$1,015	$1.16	4d	1	0.44mi
42 Vinway Ct Unit 1 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $133,000
3. 2006-01-06
   soldstatus $112,500
4. 1993-11-16
   soldstatus $87,900
5. 1987-05-27
   soldstatus $44,000
6. 1986-10-03
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,982 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable loss: −$933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vandalia-Butler City
• NCES district ID: 3904495
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,317
• Composite: 53.83/100
• National rank: #1414
• State rank: #239 of 656 in OH

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #5877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 37,953
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,167
• Household income: $54,485
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.46%
• Current HPI: 183.1124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.41%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+280.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $133,000 Dayton MLS
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 1993-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records
• 1987-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,889 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.