5 Cherrylawn Ln · Eatons Neck, NY 11768

$1,199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,308 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1959 2.00 ac lot Est $1043k · 15% over $35/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 2 serene acres in the charming hamlet of Eatons Neck, this beautiful home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and modern living. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 newer bathrooms with radiant heated floors, the home is thoughtfully designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The chef’s kitchen is a standout feature, complete with stainless steel appliances, a 6-burner gas stove, double oven, center island, solid wood cabinetry, and two skylights that fill the space with natural light. The kitchen opens to a private Trex deck overlooking the peaceful two-acre property, perfect for outdoor dining or relaxing in nature. The living room features a fireplace, recessed

Key facts

• Saltwater fish tank
• 2 acres
• Andersen windows

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• PRIVATE TREX DECK
• SALTWATER FISH TANK
• ANDERSEN WINDOWS
• CENTRAL VACUUM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $1.20M).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#910 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northport-East Northport Union Free School District (suburban): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #101 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norwood Avenue School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 434 students, 15% FRL); Northport Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 700 students, 13% FRL); Northport Senior High School (math 97% / reading 62%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,645 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $1.20M implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,043,216
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Tudor Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,225 (-4%)	7mo	$950,000	$427	66
105 Eatons Neck Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-9%)	14mo	$950,000	$452	64
27 Argyle Dr	0.53mi	4/4.0	2,143 (-7%)	10mo	$2,200,000	$1,027	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-109,222
• Equity at exit: $178,775

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $14,692
• Equity at exit: $103,668

Cash invested: $335,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11768

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,288
• Tax from tax record: −$1,324 /mo · $15,883/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $1,334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,311

Max offer price $1,199,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,013	-5% $1,674	+0% $1,334	+5% $995	+10% $655
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $860	+0% $1,334	+5% $1,808	+10% $2,282
Rate	-1.0pp $1,938	-0.5pp $1,639	base $1,334	+0.5pp $1,023	+1.0pp $707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $299,750
• Closing costs: $35,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Old Winkle Point Rd Northport, NY	3.0	3.5	2000	$12,000	$6.00	1d	1	0.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $1,199,000 Active
3. 1991-12-03
   soldstatus $260,000
4. 1991-11-21
   soldstatus $245,000
5. 1987-03-31
   soldstatus $400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,883 · $1,324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,073 · $1,506/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,190/yr (+$183/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,163
• − Property taxes: −$15,883
• − Insurance: −$5,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$34,880
• Taxable loss: −$3,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$811
• After-tax cash flow: $16,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northport-East Northport Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621270
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $104,656
• Composite: 64.22/100
• National rank: #563
• State rank: #101 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eatons Neck

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #910
• US rank: #17801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eatons Neck, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,908

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.89%
• Current HPI: 246.4282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $1,199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 1991-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,883 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.