18442 Hwy 33 S · Roe, AR 72134

$58,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller says offer "as-is". Dwelling roof covering has been replaced, rural location has septic tank, farm fields surround this rural location, neighbors a mile away. Dwelling has not been updated, exterior siding displays decay, wood heat currently in the kitchen.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 50 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#494 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarendon School District (rural): math 7% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #232 of 238 in AR (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Prairie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($404 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Prairie County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,745 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.20%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $32,451
• Equity at exit: $26,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $79,972
• Equity at exit: $40,538

Cash invested: $16,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72134

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $58,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,625
• Closing costs: $1,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-02-16
   status Under Contract
2. 2023-12-15
   listed $58,500 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,277
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$976
• − Management: −$976
• − Depreciation: −$1,702
• Taxable income: $4,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$983
• After-tax cash flow: $3,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarendon School District
• NCES district ID: 0504350
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,539
• Composite: 8.66/100
• National rank: #9896
• State rank: #232 of 238 in AR

Livability — Roe

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #25818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 543

Population outlook (Prairie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,361 people
• By 2030: 6,839 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,852 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 4,973 · -32.4%
• By 2075: 3,567 · -51.5%
• By 2100: 2,654 · -63.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prairie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 16.4% · R 82.1% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.0pp toward R · 2008: -34.8pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+61.0 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+34.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-16 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $58,500 CARMLS