15319 Bareback Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2014 7,840 sqft lot Est $256k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice, three bedroom, two bathroom home PLUS a flex space that is perfect for a home office, kids play area, or can be used as a formal dining area in the newer community of Winchester Ridge! Hardwood floors throughout the main areas. Split floor plan, Master is on right side of home featuring dual sinks, tub/shower combo, large walk in closet with built in shelving. Two other bedrooms on opposite side of home.. Fenced backyard. Access to the amenity center, featuring pool, playground, clubhouse, and more! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with annual fee of $150; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Used as single family
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard fencing; Community pool (association); Community jogging path, park, and playground

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,681 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15319 Bareback Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,540 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$162	100
15174 Bareback Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+0%)	3mo	$244,500	$158	86
5717 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+5%)	2mo	$309,990	$191	81
5728 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+5%)	4mo	$309,990	$191	75
15373 Hidden Foal Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+11%)	1mo	$287,147	$168	74
6119 Black Filly Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+11%)	1mo	$290,000	$169	74
15306 Hidden Foal Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+13%)	1mo	$240,000	$138	71
15543 Bareback Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,709 (+11%)	5mo	$285,000	$167	67
6433 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+2%)	6mo	$255,000	$163	59
6214 Wild Mustang Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+5%)	12mo	$250,000	$155	57
15679 Saddled Charger Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+11%)	8mo	$265,000	$155	44
6512 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,733 (+12%)	10mo	$287,000	$166	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,442
• Equity at exit: $78,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,664
• Equity at exit: $98,745

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,396/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $215,079

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-127	+0% $-198	+5% $-268	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-282	+0% $-198	+5% $-114	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-134	base $-198	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	14d	1	0.15mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	5d	1	0.21mi
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	3d	1	0.81mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	9d	1	0.81mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$1,773	$0.95	3d	27	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
11. 2026-04-22
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2026-04-10
    listed $250,000 Active
13. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus $198,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Very nice, three bedroom, two bathroom home PLUS a flex space that is perfect for a home office, kids play area, or can be used as a formal dining area in the newer community of Winchester Ridge! Hardwood floors throughout the main areas. Split floor plan, Master is on right side of home featuring dual sinks, tub/shower combo, large walk in closet with built in shelving. Two other bedrooms on opposite side of home.. Fenced backyard. Access to the amenity center, featuring pool, playground, clubhouse, and more! Schedule your showing today!

14. 2021-01-08
    listed $198,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Very nice, three bedroom, two bathroom home PLUS a flex space that is perfect for a home office, kids play area, or can be used as a formal dining area in the newer community of Winchester Ridge! Hardwood floors throughout the main areas. Split floor plan, Master is on right side of home featuring dual sinks, tub/shower combo, large walk in closet with built in shelving. Two other bedrooms on opposite side of home.. Fenced backyard. Access to the amenity center, featuring pool, playground, clubhouse, and more! Schedule your showing today!

15. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus $168,000
16. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $168,000 Sold 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    3 bed, 2 bath with an additional room for a home office or extra entertainment area! Only two years old, with many upgrades since initial purchase. Upgrades include a fully fenced backyard and built in patio entertain pad with gazebo, storm gutter system, water softener, decorative lighting and ceiling fans in every room, and internal video monitoring security system with six cameras throughout the house. Washer & dryer included on a full priced offer! All this plus an awesome community amenity center and pool, come visit your dream home today!

17. 2017-11-28
    historical Active - Contingent 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    3 bed, 2 bath with an additional room for a home office or extra entertainment area! Only two years old, with many upgrades since initial purchase. Upgrades include a fully fenced backyard and built in patio entertain pad with gazebo, storm gutter system, water softener, decorative lighting and ceiling fans in every room, and internal video monitoring security system with six cameras throughout the house. Washer & dryer included on a full priced offer! All this plus an awesome community amenity center and pool, come visit your dream home today!

18. 2017-10-28
    listed $170,000 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    3 bed, 2 bath with an additional room for a home office or extra entertainment area! Only two years old, with many upgrades since initial purchase. Upgrades include a fully fenced backyard and built in patio entertain pad with gazebo, storm gutter system, water softener, decorative lighting and ceiling fans in every room, and internal video monitoring security system with six cameras throughout the house. Washer & dryer included on a full priced offer! All this plus an awesome community amenity center and pool, come visit your dream home today!

19. 2014-12-19
    soldstatus $121,695 Sold
20. 2014-11-13
    status Pending
21. 2014-10-20
    price $123,695
22. 2014-10-16
    status Active
23. 2014-05-13
    listed $118,380
24. 2010-01-20
    soldstatus $3,187,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,396 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,396 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,396
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $-778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $250,000 realMLS
• 2021-01-08 Listed $198,000 realMLS
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) $198,000 realMLS
• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-18 Sold (MLS) $168,000 realMLS
• 2017-11-28 Contingent — realMLS
• 2017-10-28 Listed $170,000 realMLS
• 2014-12-19 Sold (MLS) $121,695 realMLS
• 2014-11-13 Pending — realMLS
• 2014-10-20 Price Changed $123,695 realMLS
• 2014-10-16 Relisted — realMLS
• 2014-05-13 Listed $118,380 realMLS
• 2010-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $3,187,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,396 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.