15 Astor Dr · Anderson Creek, NC 28390

$122,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $115k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hey Investors! Are you looking for your next portfolio or flip home? You may want to consider this 3BR, 2BA with garage situated on a very pretty corner lot. If you're ready, willing & able to bring this long term rental home back to life, it is sure to be an adorable and affordable home. * * * ONCE RESTORED * * * , this property is in the USDA eleigibility area (100% LTV USDA Financing available for qualified homebuyers) opening up financing opportunity for qualified homebuyers. A Win Win for everyone. Schedule an appointment, check out the house & see for your self the potential!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1974
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank and holding tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Subdivision: ROLLING SPRINGS

Interior

• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Has heating
• Interior features: No fireplace; Other flooring; 5 total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.5% in Anderson Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Overhills Middle (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #292 of 475 statewide, top 62%, 799 students, 61% FRL); Overhills High (math 52% / reading 63%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,971 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.65%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,692
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Astor Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+1%)	0mo	$115,000	$106	96
411 Rainey Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	960 (-11%)	1mo	$100,000	$104	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,259
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $42,996
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28390

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $710/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $395	+0% $360	+5% $325	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $304	+0% $360	+5% $415	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $391	base $360	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Tryon Ct W Spring Lake, NC	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.90mi
16B Wedgewood Dr Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.0–1.5	904	$1,120	$1.24	24d	15	0.92mi
65 W Northpoint Rd Spring Lake, NC	2.0	2.0	905	$1,197	$1.32	14d	2	0.93mi
201 W Northpoint Rd Spring Lake, NC	2.0	2.0	920	$1,197	$1.30	24d	1	0.94mi
290 W Northpoint Rd Spring Lake, NC	2.0	2.0	905	$1,197	$1.32	24d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $122,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$290/yr (+$24/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$710
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $2,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$590
• After-tax cash flow: $3,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Anderson Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anderson Creek, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,158
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $62,972
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.43%
• Current HPI: 207.9349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $122,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $710 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.