3431 Cherryland Ave #55 · August, CA 95215

$139,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 415 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition $125/sqft · 20% above area Est $116k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Caribou Mobile Home Park. This senior park is very special because of its serene and secure location and has a comfortable layout with wide streets and manicured streets. It is close enough to town but far enough from the freeway and noise is not a factor. There is a pool and picnic setting for residents and guests. This is truly a premium senior park. This home is truly like new with ample room inside and a spacious backyard which is covered with beautiful artificial turf. There is no home in back just a spacious easement which cannot built on. And space rent is VERY reasonable.

Key facts

• Secure location
• Wide streets
• Serene location

Tags

• SERENE LOCATION
• SECURE LOCATION
• COMFORTABLE LAYOUT
• WIDE STREETS
• MANICURED STREETS
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $770 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,074 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.59%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,195
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: 20.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3431 N Cherryland Rd #50	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	7mo	$125,000	$109	86
3431 E Cherryland Ave #13	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+4%)	22mo	$140,000	$121	76
3431 Cherryland Ave #71	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	16mo	$112,500	$94	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $26,421
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $86,332
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $867	-5% $819	+0% $770	+5% $722	+10% $674
Rent	-10% $597	-5% $684	+0% $770	+5% $857	+10% $944
Rate	-1.0pp $841	-0.5pp $806	base $770	+0.5pp $734	+1.0pp $697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit B Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.49mi
3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit A Stockton, CA	3.0	3.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 409 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 407 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 406 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,999 Active 404 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 403 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 402 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 401 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 398 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $7,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $7,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It has been recently renovated with new kitchen and bathroom fixtures, and the exterior is well-maintained. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal with artificial turf and landscaping. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior and interior walls, replace the artificial turf with natural grass, and install new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace artificial turf with natural grass — Natural grass can increase property value and attract more buyers.
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace artificial turf with natural grass — Natural grass can increase property value and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621810
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,534
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #10030
• State rank: #806 of 1400 in CA

Livability — August

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1074
• US rank: #25301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 26,032

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B