1827 Poppy St · Haines City, FL 33844

$324,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Land · 75 Days on market

Built 2025 6,576 sqft lot $59/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES with use of Seller's Preferred Lender. Discover a world of effortless elegance and comfort with the Valeria, a single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. The foyer leads to three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a convenient laundry room. The vaulted-ceilings and open concept living, dining, and kitchen areas are perfect for entertaining or cozy family nights, all enhanced by sleek quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with access to the covered lanai through sliding glass doors in the dining

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept living
• Covered lanai

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $710.48 (total monthly fees $59.21)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approximately $3,151; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Prime Community Management, LLC; HOA required with association approval required; Monthly HOA approximately $59.21 (quarterly association fee $177.62); Community amenities: dog park, park, playground, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Under construction (projected completion May 4, 2026); North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: Casa Fresca Homes (Model: Valeria); Builder license number 1332421; Permit number 2505313; Year built: under construction
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot about 0.15 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; In-wall pest control system; Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,609 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-83,146
• Equity at exit: $48,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-122,826
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,220/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,849

Max offer price $252,077

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-229	-5% $-321	+0% $-413	+5% $-505	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-597	-5% $-505	+0% $-413	+5% $-321	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-330	base $-413	+0.5pp $-497	+1.0pp $-583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1712 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,000	$1.23	24d	1	0.11mi
1728 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.14mi
2744 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,250	$1.32	4d	1	0.25mi
2748 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	0.26mi
4520 Ranunculus St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2290	$2,300	$1.00	15d	1	0.48mi
4434 Petunia ST Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	3.0	2122	$2,350	$1.11	11d	1	0.51mi
1242 Tagliamento Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,000	$1.10	24d	1	0.54mi
3857 Geranium Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.62mi
4058 Gardenia Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,995	$1.24	24d	1	0.65mi
815 Ofanto Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,500	$1.60	4d	1	0.81mi
835 Ofanto Way Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,350	$1.13	24d	1	0.82mi
304 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	15d	1	0.85mi
308 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	15d	1	0.86mi
751 Staffora St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.86mi
755 Staffora St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,799	$1.16	24d	1	0.87mi
640 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$2,100	$1.06	24d	1	0.88mi
660 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,000	$1.08	24d	1	0.89mi
671 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,200	$1.13	11d	1	0.92mi
2240 Crown Rock Bluff Dr Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,999	$1.35	15d	1	1.30mi
2528 Absolute Ave Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,800	$1.33	24d	1	1.31mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916C Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1727	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	1.40mi
2728 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,900	$1.01	24d	1	1.46mi
2405 Bluestone Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	24d	1	1.48mi
2733 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	24d	1	1.48mi
2912 poppy ave, Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,925	$1.37	24d	1	1.50mi
2756 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,350	$1.11	15d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $324,999 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,999 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,999 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,999 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,999 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $324,999 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,999 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,999 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,999 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,999 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-05-19
    price $326,999
12. 2026-05-12
    price $329,999
13. 2026-05-03
    price $333,999
14. 2026-04-21
    price $334,999
15. 2026-04-15
    price $349,499
16. 2026-04-01
    price $349,999
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $370,981 Active
18. 2024-11-13
    soldstatus $840,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,220 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,220 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,220
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-61.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $326,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $329,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $333,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $334,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $349,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $349,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $370,981 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $840,000 Public Records