5251 Fairbury Way · D'Iberville, MS 39540

$345,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2023 0.29 ac lot $145/sqft · 17% below area Est $403k · 14% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4BD/3BA home with an open-concept living area, is ready for your family! Open kitchen with island, soft-close cabinets, granite countertops, and a farmhouse sink. The primary suite has a large soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Split floor plan. Smart Home system. 3-car garage. Covered back patio. Close to the interstate, shopping, entertainment, and military bases.

Key facts

• Soft-close cabinets
• Primary suite
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,976 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,644
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -14.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5251 Fairbury Way	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,304 (-3%)	0mo	$345,000	$150	90
5046 Fairbury Way	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,469 (+4%)	0mo	$300,000	$122	86
5113 Fairbury Way	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,235 (-6%)	2mo	$291,500	$130	84
4925 Winsor Cv	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,269 (-5%)	1mo	$294,000	$130	72
15210 Windmill Ridge Pkwy	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-12%)	3mo	$319,500	$152	70
15224 Windmill Ridge Pkwy	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,091 (-12%)	6mo	$312,500	$149	68
15109 Windmill Ridge Pkwy	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,304 (-3%)	10mo	$368,095	$160	68
15234 Haversham Pl	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,422 (+2%)	1mo	$262,500	$108	68
5267 Fairbury Way	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,115 (-11%)	3mo	$332,500	$157	66
15101 Windmill Ridge Pkwy	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,486 (+4%)	10mo	$397,295	$160	64
15171 Haversham Pl	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,547 (+7%)	8mo	$295,000	$116	59
4950 Windmill Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,227 (-7%)	5mo	$235,000	$106	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-71,191
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-81,862
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39540

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,746/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,802

Max offer price $302,787

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-141	+0% $-239	+5% $-337	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-338	+0% $-239	+5% $-140	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-151	base $-239	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5126 Fairbury Way Diberville, MS	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.06mi
15200 Windmill Ridge Pkwy Diberville, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.15mi
17813 Kelso Dr D'Iberville, MS	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.49mi
5723 Overland Dr Biloxi, MS	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,249	$1.30	23d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   This 4BD/3BA home with an open-concept living area, is ready for your family! Open kitchen with island, soft-close cabinets, granite countertops, and a farmhouse sink. The primary suite has a large soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Split floor plan. Smart Home system. 3-car garage. Covered back patio. Close to the interstate, shopping, entertainment, and military bases.

2. 2026-02-26
   listed $345,000 Active 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   This 4BD/3BA home with an open-concept living area, is ready for your family! Open kitchen with island, soft-close cabinets, granite countertops, and a farmhouse sink. The primary suite has a large soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Split floor plan. Smart Home system. 3-car garage. Covered back patio. Close to the interstate, shopping, entertainment, and military bases.

3. 2025-11-12
   historical
4. 2025-07-30
   price $340,000
5. 2025-05-19
   price $347,000
6. 2025-03-15
   price $348,000
7. 2025-02-15
   price $349,000
8. 2025-02-11
   price $352,000
9. 2025-01-10
   price $354,400
10. 2024-11-13
    listed $354,900 Active
11. 2024-09-09
    historical
12. 2024-07-30
    price $369,900
13. 2024-06-21
    status Active
14. 2024-04-16
    status Pending
15. 2024-04-14
    listed $374,900 Active
16. 2023-07-28
    soldstatus Closed
17. 2023-06-19
    status Pending
18. 2023-06-15
    price $367,900
19. 2023-06-03
    price $362,800
20. 2023-05-30
    status Active
21. 2023-05-13
    status Pending
22. 2022-11-12
    listed $362,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,746 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,746 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$2,746
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$9,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $-703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — D'Iberville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: D'Iberville, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,033

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.70%
• Current HPI: 187.2895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-26 Listed $345,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $340,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $347,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $348,000 MLSU
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $349,000 MLSU
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $352,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $354,400 MLSU
• 2024-11-13 Listed $354,900 MLSU
• 2024-09-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $369,900 MLSU
• 2024-06-21 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-04-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-04-14 Listed $374,900 MLSU
• 2023-07-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-06-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-06-15 Price Changed $367,900 MLSU
• 2023-06-03 Price Changed $362,800 MLSU
• 2023-05-30 Relisted — MLSU
• 2023-05-13 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-11-12 Listed $362,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+183.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,746 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.