119 Willow Way · Forsyth, GA 30233

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2002 7,740 sqft lot $208/sqft · 19% below area Est $223k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just Listed! Welcome to a charming double-decker lake home that exudes both character and comfort. This quaint home boasts a large master bedroom that serves as a spacious and serene retreat and comes fully furnished. With its inviting atmosphere and unique double-deck design, this cottage is the perfect blend of quaint charm and modern livability. The top deck is completely screened in. This gorgeous lake home comes equipped with a storage shed. Easy highway access. Screened in back porch overlooking the lake with its own private doc and nestled on a private wooded lot, this home is your perfect getaway. 15 minutes from Tanger Outlets. Tons of shopping and restaurants nearby 4 minutes from High Falls State Park and water park. Perfect vacation home or Airbnb. NO HOA!!

Key facts

• Private dock
• Storage shed
• Private wooded lot

Tags

• DOUBLE-DECKER LAKE HOME
• FULLY FURNISHED
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• PRIVATE DOCK
• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities: lake, park

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; 110 volt electric service; Electricity available
• Home design: One-level home; Resale property; Located on a cul-de-sac (directions available); Road access via gravel easement
• Construction: Metal roof; Block foundation; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage; Deeded dock access; Lakefront

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, including a master on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; No shared/common walls; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($509/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in Forsyth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#24 in GA, #3,557 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #132 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lamar County Primary School (802 students, 75% FRL); Lamar County Middle School (math 20% / reading 33%, grade F, #282 of 470 statewide, top 61%, 657 students, 58% FRL); Lamar County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 808 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $180k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,052 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,000
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -19.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 Horseshoe Bend Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-11%)	2mo	$223,000	$290	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-26,444
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,524
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30233

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,537

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $93	+0% $42	+5% $-9	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-20	+0% $42	+5% $105	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $88	base $42	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Mace Mnr Jackson, GA	3.0	1.0	952	$1,400	$1.47	12d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on marketlisting id $179,900 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Just Listed! Welcome to a charming double-decker lake home that exudes both character and comfort. This quaint home boasts a large master bedroom that serves as a spacious and serene retreat and comes fully furnished. With its inviting atmosphere and unique double-deck design, this cottage is the perfect blend of quaint charm and modern livability. The top deck is completely screened in. This gorgeous lake home comes equipped with a storage shed. Easy highway access. Screened in back porch overlooking the lake with its own private doc and nestled on a private wooded lot, this home is your perfect getaway. 15 minutes from Tanger Outlets. Tons of shopping and restaurants nearby 4 minutes from High Falls State Park and water park. Perfect vacation home or Airbnb. NO HOA!!

8. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 781-char remark
9. 2026-05-08
   status Under Contract 779-char remark
10. 2026-03-16
    price $179,900 779-char remark
11. 2026-03-16
    price $179,900 781-char remark
12. 2026-02-04
    listed $189,900 Active 781-char remark
13. 2026-02-04
    listed $189,900 New 779-char remark
14. 2026-02-03
    historical
15. 2026-01-09
    price $194,900
16. 2025-12-08
    price $199,000
17. 2025-11-18
    price $215,900
18. 2025-10-13
    price $237,900
19. 2025-09-25
    price $250,000
20. 2025-08-13
    listed $275,000 New
21. 2023-06-29
    soldstatus $105,000
22. 2013-04-26
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 2012-05-02
    historical
24. 2011-12-15
    status Back On Market
25. 2011-11-29
    historical
26. 2011-10-02
    price $70,000 Reduced
27. 2011-08-09
    price $73,500 Reduced
28. 2011-06-24
    status Back On Market
29. 2011-06-03
    status Under Contract
30. 2011-06-01
    listed $79,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,655 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$809/yr (+$67/mo · 95.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$2,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$606
• After-tax cash flow: $1,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County
• NCES district ID: 1303210
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,643
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8628
• State rank: #132 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forsyth

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #3557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butts County · 24,730 people
• City population: 18,311
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,730
• Household income: $74,222
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 88.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,679 people
• By 2030: 18,508 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 18,110 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 17,518 · -6.2%
• By 2075: 16,318 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 14,176 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.6pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.98%
• Current HPI: 316.5436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+126.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $179,900 FMLS
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $189,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $194,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $215,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $237,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2023-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2011-12-15 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2011-11-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2011-10-02 Price Changed $70,000 GAMLS
• 2011-08-09 Price Changed $73,500 GAMLS
• 2011-06-24 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2011-06-03 Pending — GAMLS
• 2011-06-01 Listed $79,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.