3419 Rawley St · Houston, TX 77020

$269,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2017 3,641 sqft lot $107/sqft · 27% below area Est $367k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into elevated city living in the heart of Fifth Ward. This 3-bed, 3.5-bath, three-level home with a 2-car attached garage delivers space, style, and flexibility. Open living areas, high ceilings, and large windows bring in natural light, while the kitchen offers granite counters, gas range, and modern functionality. Private bedrooms with en-suite baths create ideal separation. Enjoy balcony/deck space and quick access to Downtown, EaDo, and hotspots like Saint Arnold Brewing, The Original Ninfa’s, and East River. Solid value with room to personalize—great for homeowners or investors.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Private bedrooms
• Open living areas

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREAS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• GAS RANGE
• PRIVATE BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-50/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (0.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $269k implies a 1450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,749
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -26.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2420 Sumpter St	0.59mi	3/3.5	2,387 (-5%)	7mo	$425,000	$178	58
4432 Oats St	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (-14%)	4mo	$429,900	$198	41
4434 Oats St	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (-14%)	3mo	$419,900	$194	41
4436 Oats St	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (-14%)	4mo	$439,900	$203	41
4425 Noble Street St	0.61mi	3/3.5	2,160 (-14%)	13mo	$369,900	$171	38
4438 Oats St	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,166 (-14%)	9mo	$449,900	$208	37
4220 Nichols St	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,209 (-12%)	23mo	$389,999	$177	35
4406 Vernon St Unit B	0.73mi	3/3.5	2,242 (-11%)	23mo	$339,900	$152	29
2701 Davis St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,192 (-13%)	13mo	$266,499	$122	24
2417 Wayne St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,176 (-13%)	17mo	$59,900	$28	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $150,129
• Equity at exit: $242,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $450,591
• Equity at exit: $522,608

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,353/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,809

Max offer price $268,262

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.46mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.47mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	0.72mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	0.72mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	44d	1	0.76mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.76mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.77mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.79mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	0.81mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	0.82mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	44d	1	1.04mi
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	20d	1	1.35mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	12d	1	1.44mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,045	$1.66	11d	1	1.44mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,013	$1.64	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    status Pending 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Step into elevated city living in the heart of Fifth Ward. This 3-bed, 3.5-bath, three-level home with a 2-car attached garage delivers space, style, and flexibility. Open living areas, high ceilings, and large windows bring in natural light, while the kitchen offers granite counters, gas range, and modern functionality. Private bedrooms with en-suite baths create ideal separation. Enjoy balcony/deck space and quick access to Downtown, EaDo, and hotspots like Saint Arnold Brewing, The Original Ninfa’s, and East River. Solid value with room to personalize—great for homeowners or investors.

13. 2026-04-21
    listed $305,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Step into elevated city living in the heart of Fifth Ward. This 3-bed, 3.5-bath, three-level home with a 2-car attached garage delivers space, style, and flexibility. Open living areas, high ceilings, and large windows bring in natural light, while the kitchen offers granite counters, gas range, and modern functionality. Private bedrooms with en-suite baths create ideal separation. Enjoy balcony/deck space and quick access to Downtown, EaDo, and hotspots like Saint Arnold Brewing, The Original Ninfa’s, and East River. Solid value with room to personalize—great for homeowners or investors.

14. 2023-01-11
    historical
15. 2022-12-15
    listed $399,500 Active
16. 2022-08-11
    price $4,900
17. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus
18. 2022-03-22
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2022-02-13
    status Pending
20. 2022-02-03
    status Option Pending
21. 2022-01-20
    listed $375,000 Active
22. 2021-08-02
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-07-17
    status Pending
24. 2021-06-14
    status Active
25. 2021-06-11
    status Option Pending
26. 2021-05-24
    price $344,900
27. 2021-05-11
    status Active
28. 2021-03-09
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2020-08-30
    listed $369,900 Active
30. 2019-12-17
    historical
31. 2019-12-03
    listed $359,900 Active
32. 2019-12-02
    historical
33. 2019-09-03
    status Active
34. 2019-08-31
    historical
35. 2019-05-15
    listed $359,900 Active
36. 2016-08-31
    soldstatus
37. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $17,360
38. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,353 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,353 · $696/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$8,353
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,691
• − Management: −$2,691
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$4,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,040
• After-tax cash flow: $990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1656.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-15 Listed $399,500 HARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $4,900 RENT.
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-02-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-20 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-24 Price Changed $344,900 HARMLS
• 2021-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-30 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-03 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-09-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-05-15 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2016-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $17,360 Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+39.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,353 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.