1404 Plantation Dr · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$158,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1987 5,400 sqft lot Est $205k · 22% under $199/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. No BOND- No CDD! Plus, this home would make a great Full-time Home, Winter Retreat or a Smart Investment! Most recent updates include a NEW ROOF 2018, NEW INSULATED WINDOWS and NEW HVAC in 2019! Just a few updates to make it to your own style and you’re all set to move right in! (Ok, so it’s got mauve carpet, but just imagine beachy LVP throughout and maybe new cabinet fronts!) Vaulted ceilings, plenty of windows for sunshine to stream in, as well as a Front Porch surrounded with windows to visit with friends or laze away the afternoon. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, appliances, plenty of cabinets and opens to the Living Room

Key facts

• New hvac
• Walk-in closet
• Front porch

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW INSULATED WINDOWS
• NEW HVAC
• FRONT PORCH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $159k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,133 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.28%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,880
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Orchid St	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	3mo	$260,000	$250	68
1620 W Schwartz Blvd	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	0mo	$225,000	$223	66
726 Orchid St	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	5mo	$205,000	$197	63
713 Sharon Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	5mo	$197,000	$195	58
813 Saint Andrews Blvd	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,191 (+14%)	6mo	$152,000	$128	57
717 Truman Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	10mo	$150,000	$130	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,890
• Equity at exit: $23,693

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $56,799
• Equity at exit: $13,739

Cash invested: $44,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $158,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $537	+0% $492	+5% $447	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $409	+0% $492	+5% $576	+10% $659
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $533	base $492	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,725
• Closing costs: $4,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
739 Heathrow Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,250	$2.16	2d	1	0.24mi
1430 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.37mi
1540 Hillcrest Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.39mi
1532 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,950	$2.70	24d	1	0.48mi
1214 Dustin Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,400	$1.35	24d	1	0.51mi
1715 Pebble Beach Ln Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$3,500	$3.37	24d	1	0.53mi
909 Orchid St Lady Lake, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	24d	1	0.63mi
1222 Palmetto Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	24d	1	0.82mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,720	$1.67	21d	38	0.85mi
943 Mendoza Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$5,800	$4.57	24d	1	0.88mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,639	$1.52	21d	36	0.89mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	21d	1	1.04mi
932 Chula Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$3,000	$2.23	3d	1	1.11mi
508 Tarrson Blvd Unit 1525263P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,262	$1.25	13d	1	1.15mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	21d	1	1.23mi
716 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,450	$2.24	21d	1	1.28mi
1824 Marion County Rd Weirsdale, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,500	$1.41	24d	1	1.32mi
715 Hudson Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,700	$1.94	24d	1	1.35mi
628 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,245	$1.85	21d	1	1.36mi
17472 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,950	$1.47	14d	1	1.37mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	21d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   listed $158,900 Active
3. 2025-06-06
   listed $179,000 Active
4. 2000-01-24
   soldstatus $53,000
5. 1987-07-01
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,901
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$4,623
• Taxable income: $3,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $5,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1122.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $158,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +40.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.