10018 Whippoorwill · Bismarck, MO 63624

$44,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1957 0.67 ac lot $54/sqft · 55% below area $23/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prepare to enjoy the peace and quiet of the small lake community of Holiday Shores. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home sits on three lots giving you tons of potential inside and out. With a separate dining space and spacious living room it is sure to become everything you dream it to be. Call today for your personal tour.

Key facts

• 0.67 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 58 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 840 (public records)
• HOA & community: Holiday Shores association; Annual association fee of $270; Association amenities include barbecue, beach access, park, picnic area, and playground; Association fees cover common area maintenance and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (electric: other); Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block foundation; Construction materials: Unknown; Year built: public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Few trees; Gentle sloping lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Ceiling fans; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Laminate and linoleum flooring; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($858 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Valley R-VI (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #230 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caledonia Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 165 students, 52% FRL); Valley High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 183 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,649 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.72%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,185
• List price: $44,999
• Delta: -54.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10367 Whippoorwill Dr	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	777 (-8%)	9mo	$115,000	$148	59
11216 Holiday Shores Dr	0.27mi	2/1.5	960 (+14%)	22mo	$129,000	$134	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $46,415
• Equity at exit: $40,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.49×
• Total profit: $119,531
• Equity at exit: $87,423

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63624

• Home prices YoY: 23.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $423

Max offer price $44,999

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $359	+0% $344	+5% $328	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $276	-5% $310	+0% $344	+5% $377	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $355	base $344	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,999 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,999 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,999 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,999 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,999 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,999 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,999 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $44,999 Active 249-char remark
17. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus Closed 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Prepare to enjoy the peace and quiet of the small lake community of Holiday Shores. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home sits on three lots giving you tons of potential inside and out. With a separate dining space and spacious living room it is sure to become everything you dream it to be. Call today for your personal tour.

18. 2019-10-14
    status Pending 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Prepare to enjoy the peace and quiet of the small lake community of Holiday Shores. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home sits on three lots giving you tons of potential inside and out. With a separate dining space and spacious living room it is sure to become everything you dream it to be. Call today for your personal tour.

19. 2019-07-11
    listed $29,900 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Prepare to enjoy the peace and quiet of the small lake community of Holiday Shores. This 3 bedroom 2 bath home sits on three lots giving you tons of potential inside and out. With a separate dining space and spacious living room it is sure to become everything you dream it to be. Call today for your personal tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$823
• − Management: −$823
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$873
• After-tax cash flow: $3,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2930720
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,678
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6616
• State rank: #230 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #20759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,507

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,761 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 20,992 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 18,849 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 13,749 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 9,016 · -62.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 17.1% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.3pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+18.6 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 61.65%
• Current HPI: 320.8335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+50.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $44,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-11 Listed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid