2107 Patterson Rd #31 · Riverbank, CA 95367

$68,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,043 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition 4.52 ac lot Est $89k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Park Sierra, a desirable 55+ senior community in Riverbank. This beautifully maintained home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, including spacious bump-out addition. Features include laminate flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen, central heating and air. Enjoy the covered porch with ramp access, a deep carport with spaces for two vehicles, and two storage sheds. Washer and dryer included. Located in a peaceful, well-kept community, this home is move-in ready and waiting for next owner.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Bump-out addition
• Deep carport

Tags

• BUMP-OUT ADDITION
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED PORCH
• DEEP CARPORT
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Stanislaus County; cross street Oakdale Rd; directions: From Hwy 108, take Patterson Rd north, turn into Park Sierra Mobile Home Park, and turn left onto park and proceed to Space 31.
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property indicates no land lease)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Built in 1971; Located in a senior community; Address: 2107 Patterson Rd #31, Riverbank, CA 95367
• Construction: Stone skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Regular-shaped lot; Front landscaping; Stone skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry cabinet; Ceramic counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 partial bathroom; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Pantry cabinet; Ceramic counters; Breakfast nook; Living room; Dining room; Family room; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 30.8% vs local median 3.0% in Riverbank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#757 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.45%
• DSCR: 4.89
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,655
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2107 Patterson Rd #31	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,043 (0%)	0mo	$68,500	$66	100
2107 Patterson Rd #41	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-0%)	6mo	$88,000	$85	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $77,960
• Equity at exit: $10,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.52×
• Total profit: $182,665
• Equity at exit: $5,923

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95367

• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1,398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $599

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,445	-5% $1,421	+0% $1,398	+5% $1,374	+10% $1,350
Rent	-10% $1,211	-5% $1,304	+0% $1,398	+5% $1,491	+10% $1,585
Rate	-1.0pp $1,432	-0.5pp $1,415	base $1,398	+0.5pp $1,380	+1.0pp $1,362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Stanislaus St Riverbank, CA	3.0	2.0	971	$1,950	$2.01	15d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $68,500 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   remarks 510-char remark
3. 2026-05-31
   listed $68,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $16,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,002
• After-tax cash flow: $12,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in a desirable senior community offers a good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Cabinets appear dated and could be updated for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance.
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Updating dated cabinets can improve the home's appeal and functionality.
• Rental Clean HVAC unit — A clean HVAC unit ensures the home is comfortable and energy-efficient for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Cabinets appear dated and could be updated for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Updating dated cabinets can improve the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Rental Clean HVAC unit — A clean HVAC unit ensures the home is comfortable and energy-efficient for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverbank

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #22107

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverbank, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 25,593
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,593
• Household income: $87,487
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 615.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 31% Two or more races 29% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 43% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.95%
• Current HPI: 310.4493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B