40119 Westin Way · Palmdale, CA 93551

$619,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2002 0.26 ac lot Est $592k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained West Palmdale home with a versatile floorpan and spacious living areas. Features include tile flooring, formal living room, and a separate family room with fireplace, crown molding and plantation shutters. Kitchen offers ample cabinetry, center island, and newer stainless appliances. Formal dining room currently used as a 5th bedroom for added flexibility. Primary suite includes vaulted ceilings , dual closets, and an en-suite bath with soaking tub, separate shower, and backyard access. Large lot with covered patio, above ground pool, mature landscaping, and extra side yard concrete. Two separate 3-car garages provide ample parking and storage. Solar system with Tesl

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Tile flooring
• Formal living room

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• CROWN MOLDING
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Traditional style single-story home; Rectangular lot; Paved streets
• Construction: Concrete construction; Tile roof; Concrete slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Above-ground pool; Automatic sprinklers; Rear lawn; Front lawn; RV access possible; Solar system (leased)

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas oven; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Solar heating
• Interior features: Dining area; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $619k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($41/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $503k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $503k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,025/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($600k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $619k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $502,547 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $592,365
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40028 Aliso Ct	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,323 (0%)	2mo	$570,000	$245	92
4141 Grandview Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,258 (-3%)	1mo	$585,000	$259	83
4208 Grandview	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,254 (-3%)	1mo	$630,000	$280	79
4100 Sungate Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,254 (-3%)	8mo	$530,000	$235	78
4040 Cobble Ct	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,333 (+0%)	4mo	$595,000	$255	75
40450 Fieldcrest Ln	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,370 (+2%)	5mo	$550,000	$232	63
3829 Vitrina Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,030 (-13%)	6mo	$525,000	$259	56
4546 Grandview Dr	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,192 (-6%)	2mo	$530,000	$242	56
40062 Chelsea Ct	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,564 (+10%)	4mo	$635,000	$248	54
3425 Caspian Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,091 (-10%)	6mo	$520,000	$249	47
4007 Cocina Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,001 (-14%)	7mo	$629,995	$315	45
40624 Avenel	0.66mi	4/3.0	1,988 (-14%)	2mo	$625,000	$314	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-103,765
• Equity at exit: $92,295

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-104,963
• Equity at exit: $53,520

Cash invested: $173,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,246
• Tax from tax record: −$463 /mo · $5,552/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,055
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,021

Max offer price $619,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $179	+0% $3	+5% $-172	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-195	+0% $3	+5% $202	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $161	base $3	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,750
• Closing costs: $18,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40352 Palmas Ct Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	1881	$3,800	$2.02	10d	1	0.49mi
3423 Racquet Ln Palmdale, CA	5.0	3.0	2944	$7,500	$2.55	1d	1	0.71mi
4138 Club Vista Dr Palmdale, CA	5.0	4.0	3146	$7,500	$2.38	1d	1	0.76mi
3310 Caspian Dr Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1960	$3,195	$1.63	4d	1	0.80mi
3021 Mariposa Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	3.0	1854	$3,300	$1.78	1d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $619,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $619,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $629,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $629,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $629,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $629,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $629,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $629,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $629,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $629,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $629,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $629,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $629,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $629,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $629,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $629,000 Active
17. 2025-10-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-14
    price $589,000
19. 2025-10-14
    price $589,000
20. 2025-07-15
    price $599,900
21. 2025-07-15
    price $599,900
22. 2025-06-06
    price $610,000
23. 2025-06-06
    price $610,000
24. 2025-05-22
    listed $620,000 Active
25. 2002-04-12
    soldstatus $238,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,552 · $463/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,552 · $463/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,674
• − Property taxes: −$5,552
• − Insurance: −$3,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,824
• − Management: −$4,824
• − Depreciation: −$18,007
• Taxable loss: −$10,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $2,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+164.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $629,000 AVMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $589,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $589,000 AVMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $599,900 CRMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $599,900 AVMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $610,000 AVMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $610,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $620,000 CRMLS
• 2002-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,552 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.