20581 E Prickly Pear Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1979 8,802 sqft lot Est $186k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to get your own getaway outside of Phoenix! Move North to Mayer and get your partially remodeled home situated on a 8,802 fenced lot!! Welcome Home to your little piece of Heaven! Located in the Cordes Lakes subdivision of Mayer, AZ, this property offers a spacious desert retreat with notable mountain views! This North/South facing property has no HOA with lots of room for your RV's, campers, or boats. This 1,257 square foot home has dual pane windows throughout, a newer roof, and more! Come North, escape the 115 degree heat and enjoy the cooler temperatures at 3700 elevation! Did I mention that there is no HOA? What are you waiting for? Here is your invitation to finally

Key facts

• 8,802 sq ft lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Non-assumable financing
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Propane; Private water company; Septic tank (septic connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Board & batten siding with wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Grass front yard; Grass back yard; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window/wall cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20583 E Conestoga Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	973 (+5%)	10mo	$225,000	$231	76
20659 E Sierra Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	930 (+1%)	17mo	$205,000	$220	76
15455 S Cholla Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	981 (+6%)	17mo	$203,000	$207	70
20570 E Larry Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	967 (+5%)	12mo	$85,000	$88	69
15339 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	887 (-4%)	4mo	$150,000	$169	68
16071 S Yavapai Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	925 (+0%)	5mo	$52,000	$56	66
20555 E Park View Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	5mo	$168,900	$201	64
16070 S Indian Bend Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	898 (-3%)	7mo	$150,000	$167	59
16062 S Indian Bend Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (+0%)	14mo	$206,000	$223	58
20715 E Larry Ln	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-9%)	12mo	$130,000	$155	51
16029 S Apache Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,061 (+15%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	39
16128 S Papago Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	785 (-15%)	4mo	$83,000	$106	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $112,113
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $318,731
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $179,000 Active
17. 2021-12-23
    soldstatus $130,000
18. 1998-03-18
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+359.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.