18 Ironwood Ct Lot 016 BAYLOR · Ranson, WV 25430

$279,990

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · Townhouse · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 1,598 sqft lot Est $311k · 10% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

MAY 2026 DELIVERY! Welcome to the Baylor! This new townhome presents three stories of modern living and entertainment space. Upon entering is an upgraded floorplan that includes a rec room, 3rd bedroom, and 3rd full bathroom. The second floor features an open-concept design with a fully equipped kitchen, dining area and a welcoming Great Room, plus a half bath. This beautiful kitchen is suited with White Ornamental granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and Barnett Duraform cabinets in Harbor. On the top floor are the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and a secondary bedroom, plus laundry room for added convenience. Washer and dryer are included in the price! Located i

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Upgraded floorplan
• Owner's suite

Tags

• UPGRADED FLOORPLAN
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BARNETT DURAFORM CABINETS
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $25 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Other parking types
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in excellent condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built by Lennar Homes; Construction not completed; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level; Master bedroom
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bath; Two full baths on the upper level; One full bath on the lower level; One half bath on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric backup; Electric heating fuel; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Great Room; Recreation Room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,137 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Ironwood Ct Lot 018 BAYLOR	0.01mi	3/3.5	2,045 (0%)	1mo	$309,890	$152	99
26 Ironwood Ct Lot 014 BAYLOR	0.01mi	3/3.5	2,045 (0%)	1mo	$274,000	$134	99
18 Snowdrop Ct	0.11mi	3/3.5	1,994 (-2%)	6mo	$269,500	$135	86
11 Ironwood Ct Lot 19 AMELIA	0.02mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,159 (+6%)	1mo	$314,290	$146	84
14 Snowdrop Ct	0.11mi	3/3.5	1,944 (-5%)	4mo	$264,300	$136	83
15 Ironwood Ct Lot 20 AMELIA	0.02mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,159 (+6%)	2mo	$296,290	$137	83
22 Snowdrop Ct	0.11mi	3/3.5	1,944 (-5%)	6mo	$269,500	$139	82
48 Night Star Ter Lot 048 AMELIA	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,888 (-8%)	1mo	$299,990	$159	80
60 Night Star Ter Lot 045 AMELIA	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,888 (-8%)	1mo	$290,000	$154	79
64 Night Star Ter Lot 044 AMELIA	0.07mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,888 (-8%)	1mo	$291,990	$155	78
23 Ironwood Ct Lot 22 AMELIA	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-14%)	4mo	$276,990	$157	68
27 Ironwood Ct Lot 23 AMELIA	0.03mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,760 (-14%)	4mo	$290,290	$165	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $122,869
• Equity at exit: $252,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $385,245
• Equity at exit: $543,959

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25430

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $212,593

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-369	+0% $-466	+5% $-563	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-615	-5% $-540	+0% $-466	+5% $-391	+10% $-316
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-395	base $-466	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Night Star Ter Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1530	$1,800	$1.18	5d	1	0.06mi
60 Night Star Ter Unit 1 Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1880	$1,895	$1.01	5d	1	0.06mi
122 Blakely Rd Kearneysville, WV	4.0	2.5	2365	$2,550	$1.08	13d	1	0.72mi
11 Aberdeen Dr Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1820	$1,850	$1.02	3d	3	0.88mi
15 Chloe Dr Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,795	$1.00	13d	1	0.91mi
99 Laxfield Ct Martinsburg, WV	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,875	$1.34	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   price $279,990
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $287,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$10,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,330
• Population (ZIP): 8,215

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.13%
• Current HPI: 322.5052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $287,990 BRIGHT MLS