419 Mott St · St. Louis, MO 63111

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1898 2,400 sqft lot $51/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 2,400 sq ft lot
• Built 1898
• Listed 146 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.31%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,870
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -50.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7226 Virginia Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,860 (-4%)	5mo	$64,900	$35	64
6212 Virginia Ave	0.22mi	3/3.0	2,070 (+6%)	9mo	$245,000	$118	64
7027 Michigan Ave	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+3%)	6mo	$104,900	$52	64
3670 Loughborough Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,979 (+2%)	6mo	$300,000	$152	60
7223 Pennsylvania Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,856 (-5%)	8mo	$44,900	$24	59
120 Elwood Ave	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,852 (-5%)	7mo	$170,000	$92	57
6822 Virginia Ave	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,220 (+14%)	7mo	$278,000	$125	56
617 Bellerive Blvd	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,890 (-3%)	6mo	$299,900	$159	56
5405 Michigan Ave	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	2,031 (+4%)	1mo	$149,000	$73	51
7217 Pennsylvania Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,130 (+9%)	9mo	$54,900	$26	50
7505 Pennsylvania Ave	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,788 (-8%)	7mo	$135,000	$76	43
925 Dover Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-15%)	4mo	$265,000	$160	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $17,331
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $59,344
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $710/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $791

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6800 Virginia Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	18d	1	0.15mi
6730 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,600	$1.04	15d	1	0.18mi
6915 Alabama Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.31mi
7417 Vermont Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	2d	8	0.59mi
7924 Michigan Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,195	$0.96	3d	1	0.93mi
3857 Boulevard Heights Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1697	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.99mi
4657 Idaho Ave Unit 4659 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1668	$1,295	$0.78	24d	1	1.21mi
3635 Marceline Ter Unit 2ND St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,275	$1.02	44d	1	1.32mi
4000 Schiller Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,618	$1.12	8d	1	1.33mi
4114 Alma Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1269	$2,065	$1.63	2d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

2. 2026-03-03
   status Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

3. 2025-11-29
   status Pending 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

4. 2025-10-31
   status Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

5. 2025-09-24
   status Pending 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

6. 2025-08-15
   listed $100,000 Active 141-char remark

   Show marketing remark (141 chars)

   Rehabber's dream! This full brick, two story home has a lot of the workload done! Buy this one and put your finishes on it today! Sold as-is.

7. 2021-09-21
   soldstatus $120,000
8. 2011-07-20
   soldstatus
9. 2008-10-24
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 36.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$710
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $5,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $710 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.