309 5th Ave SE · Ephrata, WA 98823

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1994 6,420 sqft lot $130/sqft · 23% below area Est $248k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price Reduced! Great Rental Opportunity! Spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and skylights. 3 bedroom 2 bath home with 1 car carport and lots of parking. Beautiful White kitchen cabinets, nice countertops, and all appliances included. Extra nook, mudroom or office space. Large Primary suite, decorative barn door with double vanities. Fenced yard and outbuildings.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Extra nook
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• EXTRA NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Ephrata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#83 in WA, #1,613 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Ephrata School District (town): math 56% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #72 of 291 in WA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,203
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -23.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
353 5th Ave SE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	1mo	$150,000	$120	69
521 J St SE	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	21mo	$354,000	$252	53
770 K St SE	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	19mo	$289,000	$223	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,430
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,965
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98823

• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 3rd Ave NE Apt 5 Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,650	$1.27	43d	1	1.11mi
255 J St NE Ephrata, WA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	1.11mi
707 3rd Ave NE Unit 5 Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,650	$1.27	43d	1	1.13mi
711 3rd Ave NE Unit 5 Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	1.14mi
807 3rd Ave NE Unit 5 Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,600	$1.19	43d	1	1.14mi
713 3rd Ave NE Unit 4 Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,395	$1.03	43d	1	1.14mi
1311 2nd Ave Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1294	$1,900	$1.47	43d	1	1.15mi
370 Ivy St NE Ephrata, WA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	43d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $190,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 57 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    status Active
20. 2026-02-19
    status Pending
21. 2026-01-28
    listed $220,000 Active
22. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus $229,000 Closed
23. 2021-10-26
    status Pending
24. 2021-09-30
    listed $239,900 Active
25. 1994-07-18
    soldstatus $15,500
26. 1992-12-03
    soldstatus $60,600
27. 1991-05-21
    soldstatus $34,539

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ephrata School District
• NCES district ID: 5302610
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,652
• Composite: 51.86/100
• National rank: #3574
• State rank: #72 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ephrata

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ephrata, WA
• County: Grant County · 61,643 people
• City population: 12,188
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• Population (ZIP): 12,188
• Household income: $73,074
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 182.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,356 people
• By 2030: 102,107 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 108,318 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 114,712 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 131,376 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 146,163 · +47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -356.36%
• Current HPI: 219.8763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+537.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-10 Sold (MLS) $229,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-30 Listed $239,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 1992-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,600 Public Records
• 1991-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $34,539 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,896 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.