460 Mulberry Crk · Tye, TX 79536

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 208 Days on market

Built 1986 1.73 ac lot $94/sqft · 46% above area Est $78k · 28% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Opportunity! Whether you’re searching for a peaceful home just outside the city with acreage, or you’re an investor seeking a high-demand rental property, this place checks every box. This property includes three separate septic systems & water meters... one for the main home, one located mid-property currently used for a travel trailer, and a third that can support an additional mobile home. Perfect for creating a small family compound, expanding with multiple rentals, or maximizing income potential. Located just 10 minutes from the AI plant in Abilene, this property offers strong rental demand and excellent long-term value.

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• Water meters
• 1.73 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• THREE SEPARATE SEPTIC SYSTEMS
• WATER METERS
• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• EXCELLENT LONG TERM VALUE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#631 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merkel El (math 53% / reading 44%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 565 students, 60% FRL); Merkel Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 248 students, 51% FRL); Merkel H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 327 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.38%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,163
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 27.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $8,166
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $38,548
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79536

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $417	+0% $382	+5% $348	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $275	-5% $329	+0% $382	+5% $436	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $408	base $382	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $100,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $110,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 187 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 186 DOM
18. 2026-02-10
    price $110,000 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity! Whether you’re searching for a peaceful home just outside the city with acreage, or you’re an investor seeking a high-demand rental property, this place checks every box. This property includes three separate septic systems & water meters... one for the main home, one located mid-property currently used for a travel trailer, and a third that can support an additional mobile home. Perfect for creating a small family compound, expanding with multiple rentals, or maximizing income potential. Located just 10 minutes from the AI plant in Abilene, this property offers strong rental demand and excellent long-term value.

19. 2025-11-25
    listed $120,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity! Whether you’re searching for a peaceful home just outside the city with acreage, or you’re an investor seeking a high-demand rental property, this place checks every box. This property includes three separate septic systems & water meters... one for the main home, one located mid-property currently used for a travel trailer, and a third that can support an additional mobile home. Perfect for creating a small family compound, expanding with multiple rentals, or maximizing income potential. Located just 10 minutes from the AI plant in Abilene, this property offers strong rental demand and excellent long-term value.

20. 2020-12-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$764
• After-tax cash flow: $3,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merkel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830340
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,594
• Composite: 32.22/100
• National rank: #5774
• State rank: #460 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tye

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12064

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,080

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.40%
• Current HPI: 203.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2020-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $156 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.